Recent aircraft data shows that Isaac has become more organized and is strengthening. If strengthening continues, Issac could briefly become a hurricane later today. Over the next 72 hours, Issac is expected to continue its path through the Caribbean, moving northwest towards the island of Cuba, and approaching Florida.
CURRENT STORM INFO
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
As of the 5am advisory, a hurricane warning has been issued for the Florida keys, the west coast of Florida south of Bonita Beach and Florida Bay.
A hurricane watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida from Golden Beach southward, as well as Andros Island in the Bahamas.
Tropical storm watches are in effect the Dominican republic, Haiti, western Cuba, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the east coast of Florida from Jupiter Inlet south and Lake Okeechobee.
A tropical storm warning has been issued for central Cuba, Jamaica and Florida’s east coast between Jupiter Inlet and Sebastian Inlet.
Extra planes were deployed to try and make sense with what is happening around Tropical Storm Isaac Friday evening. This extra data shows Issac to be strengthening as we had anticipated Friday. The strongest of Issac’s winds have become more concentrated near the center of the storm as Issac’s center of circulation becomes more defined.
Isaac continues to struggle with dry air, and its thunderstorms are still not symmetric around the center. The center has noticeably taken “wobbles” of more than 100 miles both north and south over the last 24 hours, the hallmark of a storm both reorganizing and interacting with land and dry air. These wobbles may continue after Isaac moves over Cuba, potentially further complicating the storm’s 3-5 day forecast.
The official forecast from the NHC reflects gradual strengthening and potential interaction with land over the next 36 hours. Environmental conditions continue to remain favorable for strengthening today and tomorrow when Isaac will likely be near the island of Cuba within 24 hours. However, the interaction with this large and mountainous land mass is likely to play in a role in how strong Isaac can become.
While the models are in agreement that storm will pass over Cuba, it is uncertain how long the storm will remain over land. This is critical to determining Isaac’s future track and intensity, as both are highly dependent on what track the storm takes over land. Forecast confidence decreases significantly beyond Sunday as Isaac emerges back over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico on Cuba’s north coast.
A trough of lower pressure will be re-establishing itself in the eastern third of the U.S. by early next week, and it’s this trough that will likely pull Isaac northward with time. Exactly when this happens and at what longitude the storm will be remains to be seen.
While a landfall somewhere in the United States next week seems nearly certain, determining the 4-5 day location and intensity is not possible to do with great precision at this point. Model solutions range from anywhere in the Gulf of Mexico from Louisiana to Florida. Confidence remains low, and everyone is encouraged to stay tuned and informed over the next few days.
Here’s how you can stay up-to-date with the very latest from WRUF on Isaac:
- Follow us on Twitter @gatorweather for urgent updates
- Live streaming of WRUF-TV at 20 past the hour for Tropical Weather Updates
- WUFT-FM on Morning Edition (7:30/8:30am) and Front Page (4:20/4:50pm)
- Live storm tracking and interactive chat as the storm moves closer
ARCHIVED STORM INFO