Tropical moisture has been lurking to our west and south all weekend. Starting Monday, this moisture will be on the move into North-Central Florida. As high pressure to our northeast moves further away, winds will veer more out of the south and southwest. These winds will transport a warm and humid air mass back into the Sunshine State on Monday, making way for numerous thunderstorms by late afternoon. The Gulf of Mexico sea breeze will be the triggering mechanism for early afternoon cells west of the I-75 corridor, but these will be shifting further inland by early evening.
On Tuesday, an upper-level trough of low pressure and associated cold front will swing across the Mid-South, further enhancing the upward motion of the aforementioned warm and humid airmass. This type of scenario will lead to widespread thunderstorm activity on Tuesday, with some of the storms possibly strong and longer lasting than Monday’s. While a widespread severe weather outbreak is highly unlikely, some of the cells may be capable of producing minor wind damage, very frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and small hail. We will issue an update late Monday on the possible severe weather chances for Tuesday.
The Bottom Line
Tuesday: Thunderstorms are possible at any time, but most-likely in the afternoon. Some of the storms could be strong, with a very low chance of severe weather.