An approaching front from the west, combined with a surplus of tropical moisture moving northward across the state will create an unstable air mass by early afternoon on Monday. The front will likely trigger strong to severe storms across the panhandle by early afternoon, but these are forecast to move more northward into Alabama and Georgia (not shown on the map above). The storms that form across North-Central Florida are likely to be triggered along an advancing Gulf sea breeze (well in advance of the front) near the I-75 corridor in Alachua and Marion counties by mid-afternoon. As these cells move northeastward into Putnam and Clay counties by late afternoon, the environment is forecast to become more supportive of strong storms capable of damaging wind gusts and small hail. The Atlantic sea breeze will likely be pinned along the I-95 corridor, and it’s this boundary that might also cause a few cells to rotate, leading to an isolated tornado threat near Jacksonville and Saint Augustine.
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