DISCUSSION: As of Noon today, a cold front was slowly moving through North-Central Florida and has stalled near a line from Cedar Key to Williston to Saint Augustine. (see live analysis map). An extensive cloud deck has moved overhead, which has limited daytime heating and instability. Some breaks in the clouds are expected to develop this afternoon ahead of a weak area of lower pressure moving in off the Gulf and along the front. Thunderstorms are ongoing over the NE Gulf and we anticipate new cells to form along a Gulf sea breeze around 3pm near a Chiefland-Williston-Ocala line. As these storms move northeast along the front, sufficient instability is forecast to exist for some heavier downpours, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty winds. Widespread severe weather is NOT anticipated, but it also can not be ruled out. Activity will be most-widespread south of the front, mainly in Marion and Putnam counties. The front is expected to accelerate this evening and dry most of North-Central Florida out by mid-evening.
The Bottom Line
WHEN: Today 3pm to 8pm
WHERE: Highest concentration in Marion and Putnam counties, although some rain and thunder will likely move through Levy, Gilchrist, Alachua, Bradford and Clay counties.
THREAT: Heavy rain (and for areas hit hard last night, flooding), frequent lightning, minor wind damage