Invest 98L is currently located approximately 500 miles east of the Windward Islands. Convection has increased near what appears to be a developing center of circulation over the past 24 hours. Upper-level winds also appear to be allowing the storms to “breath”, meaning there is good outflow representation on satellite as well. Needless to say, 98L is becoming better organized and confidence in tropical development is increasing over the coming days.
Invest 98L is forecast to slowly turn slightly north of west over the coming days and be passing through the Windward Islands on Friday. At this time, there is only a moderate chance of a Tropical Depression forming from 98L by Friday. Long-range guidance (this weekend and beyond) does indicate stronger upper-level winds pulling 98L (or possibly Depression 16) to the north and eventually northeast, or back out to sea. Considering how far south 98L currently is, though, model guidance may not have a real clear read on the system’s future track. And since long-range forecasting of tropical systems is extremely complex, we will remain diligent in tracking this feature on-line and on WRUF-TV with your Tropical Update at 20 past every hour.