We have tweaked the story below just a bit to clarify the timing of the rain and thunder, but the overall forecast for widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is still on target this afternoon and evening, with the heaviest falling in northern and central counties of our listening/viewing area. Video below explains all…
Instability could prove sufficient for some storms to be on the stronger side with damaging wind gusts, but this potential will be confined mainly to areas near the Nature Coast or the I-10 corridor (see map). The risk in Gainesville and points south is quite low. The primary threat with any stronger storm would be a damaging wind gust or an isolated weak tornado or water spout.
WHEN WILL IT RAIN
Gainesville & Alachua County: Spotty showers possible by 2pm. Steadier and heavier rain likely after 4pm, with a stronger storm with gusty winds possible around 7pm. Rain tapering off by 8pm and likely dry by 10pm.
North and West (near I-10 and Suwannee River Valley): Showers developing by 2pm, then a steadier and heavier rain likely by 4pm. Thunder and gusty winds is also possible with some of the stronger cells between 4 and 6pm. Rain tapering off by 7pm.
South and East (near Ocala, The Villages, and Palatka): Rain is much LESS likely in areas of central Florida. In fact, only a few spotty showers are possible in these areas and only after 4pm. The chances for a few brief showers will continue until about 10pm.
The fast movement of this storm system will result in less-than-desired rainfall amounts for the farmers. Only about a quarter to a half of an inch are likely in most areas near and north of a Cedar Key to Gainesville to St. Augustine line. Less than a tenth of an inch is expected in Marion County and points south. We will update this post frequently on Thursday with the very latest. Also follow us on Twitter @GatorWeather for urgent weather updates.
Much-needed rain is on the way to North-Central Florida. We first told you last weekend that the upper-level winds were shifting, making way for several more opportunities for rain in the coming days. One of those days will be Thursday as a vigorous disturbance traverses The Southeast and pushes a cold front toward the state.
This system will work in tandem with an arctic front to develop a powerful Nor’Easter that will dump significant amounts of snow in New England and batter the coastline with wind and rain further south in the Mid-Atlantic states.
Thursday’s system will be a fast mover, but has the potential to bring some brief periods of heavier rain to parts of North-Central Florida Thursday afternoon and evening. A few showers will be possible midday as a warm front lifts north of the region. The bulk of the rain, though, will be more aligned with a weak cold front on its approach Thursday evening.