MIDDAY UPDATE: The disturbance triggering today’s rain is aiming a little further south as it crosses the peninsula. Newest model data suggests that the bulk of the rain will fall south of HWY 24 from Cedar Key to Gainesville and south of HWY 20 from Gainesville to Palatka. Levy, Marion, Citrus, and parts of Alachua and Putnam counties stand the greatest chance of steadier rain and some thunder late this afternoon and this evening. Areas further north, including Gainesville and Lake City, will likely only see a few light and spotty showers between 4 and 9pm.
Tuesday’s front was lacking sufficient moisture for widespread rain or thunderstorm activity, leading to a difficult forecast both in terms of coverage and intensity of precipitation. Wednesday’s system doesn’t appear to be as difficult to discern. Most of North-Central Florida will likely see measurable rain on Wednesday as it passes through. The nature of this precipitation will be a bit different than what was forecast Tuesday. Instead of spotty thunderstorms with pockets of heavy rain, Wednesday’s rain will be steadier and more widespread, but not necessarily very heavy. It’s also worth noting that temperatures will be cooler and a stiff breeze from the northwest will make it feel even cooler at times. This chill, combined with occasional rain will make for a real ugly day on the first official day of Spring.
THE BOTTOM LINE
- Periods of light to moderate rain is likely from late afternoon through early evening.
- A thunderstorm with brief downpours is possible, but not likely.
- Temperatures will hold steady in the middle 6os while it’s raining, possibly reaching 70 during times of dry weather.
- Winds will be steady out of the northeast at 10 to 15 mph, making it feel several degrees cooler at times.