The ingredients are certainly there for a severe weather outbreak, but the triggering mechanism for widespread thunderstorm activity will be lacking this afternoon. This is thanks to a large complex of storms currently moving onshore from the Gulf of Mexico in central and south Florida. These storms are sending a large cloud canopy northward and thereby preventing us from heating up as much as earlier anticipated. This roadblock of sorts is also preventing the deeper moisture from being transported all the way into North-Central Florida where the greatest shear (or spinning of the winds) coincides with a warm front. The end result will be an environment over North-Central Florida that will fall short of potential in respect to the severity and coverage of the storms. We are certainly not giving the “all clear” as a few isolated stronger storms could still form later today, so please stay weather aware and check back with us often.
THE REST OF TODAY
2pm to 8pm: Widely scattered, but locally strong or severe thunderstorms developing from southwest to northeast. The strongest cells would be capable of large hail, damaging wind gusts, and isolated tornadoes.
Overnight after 3am: A final round of brief downpours and gusty winds will likely accompany the cold front toward daybreak.