Long-time Floridians know how to recognize it. They say you can just “feel it”. What they are likely referring to is the dew point, a unit we use to measure moisture in the air and calculate relative humidity. Over the weekend, dew points in North Florida have been approaching 70 degrees, and this is the threshold we often refer to as “tropical” or even “uncomfortable”. It’s also the number, that when reached consistently, triggers afternoon showers or thunderstorms nearly every day along sea breeze fronts. And with a forecast for this kind of moisture every day this week, we can declare North Florida’s rainy season has arrived.
THE BOTTOM LINE
- Rainy season is here; chances for showers nearly every afternoon.
- Weak front Mon/Tue may yield stronger storms, possibly even severe.
- Watching a surface low in the Gulf closely Wednesday & Thursday.
THE SET UP
MONDAY & TUESDAY: A weakening front moving out of Georgia will interact with deeper tropical moisture to cause numerous showers and thunderstorms both afternoons. Some of the storms could produce very heavy rain, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and even some minor wind damage.
WEDNESDAY: A few showers or thunderstorms are still possible during the afternoon, mainly along the sea breezes. However, we should see a considerable decrease to both the coverage and strength of the storms.
THURSDAY & FRIDAY: We will be watching the Gulf of Mexico closely. No matter what forms, tropical or not, an increase in moisture is forecast to yield numerous periods of rain and some thunder, likely heavy at times, for the end of the work week.