WRUF Weather

Tropical Storm Andrea makes landfall in Dixie County

THE BOTTOM LINE

  • Andrea made landfall at 5:45 pm, 10 miles south of Steinhatchee, Dixie County
  • The storm has weakened, and will continue to weaken overnight as it makes its way across the state, and northward along the mid-atlantic states.
  • Flooding is still the greatest concern for inland areas. Rainfall totals close to 5 in. have been reported in some areas. A flood watch is in effect for North Central Florida until 8PM on Sunday.
  • Light showers and gusty winds will continue until 8AM Friday.

 

ORIGINAL POST:
Tropical Storm Andrea was named Wednesday afternoon as the first storm of the young 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season. The storm developed in an area of high wind shear, which kept the bulk of the storm’s convection to the east and southeast of the storm. As a result, the highest impacts were felt in Central and South Florida. Tornadoes were reported in Broward, Palm Beach and Hillsborough counties, and a waterspout came ashore in the keys. The storm also dumped close to 5 inches of rain across North Central Florida, where it made landfall on the coast of Dixie County on Thursday evening. It is expected to weaken as it makes its way across the state.

 

THE TRACK
At this time, model data suggests the storm will track near or just west of Apalachee Bay and the Nature Coast, potentially placing the heaviest rainfall near or south of a Cedar Key to Saint Augustine line. Landfall will likely occur late Thursday or early Friday, at which time the system is forecast to accelerate northeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic States. There is still a considerable amount of uncertainty on the exact storm path, so North-Central Floridians are urged to check back in for frequent updates. The heaviest rain will likely occur 50 to 200 miles to the south or east of the storm center.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS

Considering the uncertainty to the storm track at this point, WRUF is not issuing an official forecast on rainfall amounts just yet. We are reasonably confident that at least an inch of rain will fall in most areas with this system through Friday. Amounts as high as 6 inches will be possible in some areas, though. The image below is a representation of the accumulated rainfall over the next 48 hours:

POTENTIAL IMPACTS & TIMING

CITY THURSDAY THU NIGHT FRIDAY

Gainesville Periods of rain, becoming steady & heavy by evening; isolated tornado threat increases into Thursday evening Periods of steady rain, not quite as heavy after 9pm; tornado threat diminished but present until around midnight Showers likely in the early morning hours; rain quickly ending.

Ocala Periods of rain, becoming steady & heavy by evening; isolated tornado threat increases into Thursday evening Periods of steady rain, not quite as heavy after 8pm; tornado threat diminished but present until around midnight Spotty showers in the morning; rain ending quickly.

Lake City Rain developing by afternoon, heavy in the evening; isolated tornado threat increases into Thursday evening Periods of steady rain, not quite as heavy after 9pm; tornado threat diminished but present until around midnight Showers tapering off quickly

Cedar Key Rain developing by noon, then steady & heavy by afternoon • seas 5-7 ft • winds S 40 mph; isolated tornado threat increases into Thursday evening Periods of stead heavy rain, diminishing intensity after 7pm • seas 3-5 ft • winds SW 40-45 mph; isolated tornado threat until about 10pm Spotty showers redevelop late • seas 2-4 ft • winds SW 25 mph

St. Augustine Spotty showers through early evening, then heavier rain after sunset • seas 3-5 ft • winds SE 15-20 mph; isolated tornado threat increases into Thursday evening Periods of steady rain and heavy downpours until about 2am Fri morning • seas 6-9 ft • winds S 25-30 mph, with gale-force gusts; isolated tornado threat until around midnight Morning rain, tapering to showers late • seas 3-5 ft • winds S 20 mph

 

 

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