After several days of relatively dry weather in north Florida, typical afternoon downpours and isolated stronger thunderstorms will be returning by week’s end. The increase in the rain chances will be coming from two sources over the coming days, neither of which will likely produce widespread or heavy rain. Rather, just an increase in the coverage and strength of typical afternoon thunderstorms we receive this time of year.
First, a weak front will stall near the Florida-Georgia border late on Thursday. The arrival of the front will likely trigger a cluster or two of cells near the I-10 corridor that will drift southeast. The development of a weak area of low pressure on Friday could also enhance the thunderstorm coverage and intensity a bit on Friday, with Gainesville possibly being more in the cross-hairs of a stronger storm.
A tropical wave of lower pressure will be the forcing mechanism for more rain over the weekend in parts of the state, especially central and south Florida. This wave is expected to move across the peninsula late Saturday and early Sunday, but the coverage of the rain will be greatest during the afternoon and evening hours of both days. This will occur first on Saturday afternoon in southeast Florida, then likely occur again Sunday afternoon in central and north Florida. The fast nature of this wave will likely prevent widespread flooding or severe weather, but there will most-certainly be some heavier downpours and stronger storms in spots.