WRUF Weather

Downpours likely Monday, severe storms possible mid-week in North Florida

Doppler radar rainfall estimates from Saturday and Sunday (NOAA)

The soggy weather set up will continue into the new work week for much of North Florida, with heavy rain and stronger thunderstorms expected at times.  Many neighborhoods have already seen more than two inches of rain over the weekend, and forecast data suggests those totals could double by the end of the week.  While much different than a tropical storm or hurricane’s widespread  and continuous rain, the connection to the tropics with this weather system will produce similar rainfall rates at times.  Monday’s rain could occur at any time of the day, but the activity will become more typical of our rainy season by mid-week, mostly occurring in the late afternoon and early evening hours when the sea breezes march inland.  The interactions of these fronts from both coasts might also trigger a few strong or severe thunderstorms, especially on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Projected rainfall through Wednesday (with locally higher amounts possible in spots)
  • Periods of heavy rain on Monday with frequent lightning possible, occuring at any time throughout the day.
  • Spotty, but locally strong thunderstorms possible Tuesday after 3 pm, likely ending by 8pm.
  • Strong and potentially severe t-storms likely Wednesday and Thursday, developing by early afternoon east of I-75, moving across the I-75 corridor between 2 and 7 pm, and then diminishing west of I-75 by early evening.
MONDAY

Atmospheric moisture levels will be unusually high again on Monday, leading to numerous waves of rain and thunder that could occur at any time of day.  Newest forecast data suggest two possible periods of time where the shower and thunderstorms will be the most widespread; late morning and early evening.  Rainfall rates in the stronger cells could be between one and two inches per hour, so localized flooding in urban areas or near small creeks and streams will be possible.  Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and wind gusts between 30 and 50 mph will also be common in the stronger cells.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

The axis of deepest tropical moisture will begin to shift to the west of the peninsula by mid-week, but plenty of “left overs” will remain across The Sunshine State through Thursday, paving the way for more showers and thunderstorms each and every afternoon as the sea breezes march inland.  Rain coverage might decrease a bit on Tuesday, but then we expect it to increase again on Wednesday and Thursday as Atlantic moisture surges in.  The wind pattern will be favorable for sea breeze collisions in the afternoon hours that could trigger a few stronger thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind, hail, and even an isolated water spout or tornado.  We will be updating this site with more on these threats and the timing of each day’s storms later in the week.  Current forecast data suggests that the late evening hours of both Wednesday and Thursday (the 4th of July) will be drier, which is great news for those planning to attend the annual Fanfares and Fireworks at Flavet Field on Wednesday evening.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND

A drier surge of air will be arriving from the Atlantic Ocean by week’s end, reducing the daily chances for an afternoon shower back to normal values for this time of year.  This type of pattern typically delivers a few brief downpours in the mid-afternoon hours, but usually leaves most of North-Central Florida dry by the evening hours.


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