It’s a little early in the season to be concerned with tropical activity in the central or eastern Atlantic, at least according to climatology. The “Cape Verde Season”, the time of year when we look to the Cape Verde Islands or western Africa for tropical cyclones to form, doesn’t typically begin until mid-August. And while not truly a Cape Verde wave, the National Hurricane Center is watching what they are calling a “vigorous disturbance” near 35°W, or about 850 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, that has a moderate chance of developing into the season’s third named storm.
The wave is designated as Invest 95L and computer models have been initiated on a possible center of circulation. Thunderstorm activity near the wave has been consistent and the National Hurricane Center is making plans to deploy a weather reconnaissance flight late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Until then, the wave is fighting several negative factors that could prevent it from becoming a tropical cyclone anyway. Saharan Dust (that usually includes very dry air) is apparent on the north and west side of the 95L, and this could prevent deeper convection from forming over the next 24 to 48 hours. Beyond this time frame, wind shear (strong winds aloft) is forecast to increase significantly on the system’s northeastern side. Nonetheless, should 95L continue to develop, forecast guidance suggests it could be near the Windward Islands by mid-week. Thereafter, model data is insufficient on making a call of 95L’s track and strength into the Caribbean or western Atlantic.