UPDATE MON 5PM: The axis of the trough has now moved to the edge of the eastern seaboard of the U.S. This brought some heavy downpours and thunderstorms to much of the North Central Florida early on Monday, lasting well into the afternoon in some areas. Rainfall totals over one inch were reported in some communities, with most areas getting at least half an inch of rain.
Monday Rainfall Totals:
- Lake Butler: 0.79″
- Haile Plantation : 1.34″
- Interlachen: 0.55″
- Cedar Key: 0.72″
- Lake City: 0.79″
- Gainesville: 0.67″
Most areas will dry out through early morning, but some showers on storms will likely redevelop in the Suwannee River valley by 6 am Tuesday. Waves of moisture will once again move eastward, reaching the Gainesville area as early as 10am. It will be another soggy day for most of North Central Florida, with many cells producing heavy downpours, gusty winds, and cloud-to-ground lightning. Some of the cells will have the potential to produce severe weather. We’ll have live updates on WRUF-TV channel 6 in the event any severe warnings are issued. Plus to help you plan your day, you can monitor our twitter feed @WRUFweather for the latest updates on when showers and storms will hit.
Original Post Sunday
It isn’t uncommon to get a brief shower or thunderstorm nearly every day during the summer in Florida. In fact, June and July are usually Gainesville’s wettest months, with 7.12 inches falling in June and 6.07 inches in July on average. The two-month total (so far) this year at the Gainesville Regional Airport is over 16 inches, with 10 inches falling in the first 20 days of the month alone! Typical rainy season showers and thunderstorms, most commonly found along sea breezes, need very little help to develop in Florida’s subtropical environment. Throw in a larger-scale weather system, such as a slow-moving area of low pressure or tropical cyclone, and the perception that The Sunshine State has been anything but lately seems valid. And this idea will likely be reinforced again this week, especially Tuesday and Wednesday when showers and thunderstorms could occur at anytime of day and last for hours.
THE BOTTOM LINE
- Rain and thunder likely midday Tuesday, heavy at times
- Widespread coverage of storms likely again Wednesday and Thurday afternoon, some of the storms possibly severe
- Near normal rainfall timing and coverage returns Friday and Saturday
THE SET UP
The Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (or TUTT) that has been partly responsible for drenching the region over the weekend has drifted west into the Gulf of Mexico and dissipated. Replacing it will be an unusually strong (for this time of year) trough of low pressure diving into the eastern third of the country by mid-week. Florida will be at the base of this trough, in a favorable environment for more rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain, especially as pieces of energy rotate around the base of the trough. The greatest coverage and intensity of rain will occur where these disturbances interact with sea breeze boundaries during the peak heating of the day. This is expected to happen both Tuesday and Wednesday in North-Central Florida and as a result, heavy rain will be possible. The rain and thunder will likely arrive a little earlier in the day Tuesday, so it may not be as strong but it will certainly be widespread. Wednesday’s situation is not as clear cut, but a later arriving thunderstorm would have the potential to be strong and possibly severe. We will keep you updated on how this scenario may or may not play out. Slightly drier air is forecast to move in Thursday and Friday, but not dry enough to complete eliminate the typical pop-up afternoon showers and thunderstorms that will likely fire along the sea breeze boundaries.