It was about a week ago that an extended period of heat and humidity became the bigger story than the persistent summer rains. The storms are starving for attention, though, and by week’s end will likely be making headlines again. A period of unsettled weather, possible even tied to a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico, is forecast to arrive late Thursday or Friday.
- Typical summer heat and spotty afternoon storms through Thursday
- Deeper tropical moisture arrives Friday, with heavy rainfall possible
- Unsettled conditions could last into the weekend
THE SET UP
The recent heat has been nothing unusual for this time of year, but it hasn’t been very persistent this summer due to above average rainfall. A strong ridge of high pressure east of The Bahamas, often referred to as the “Bermuda High”, drifted closer to Florida over the weekend and largely suppressed thunderstorm formation across the peninsula. This will be the rule for the first half of the upcoming work week as well. By midweek, though, the ridge is forecast to weaken and drift back to the east, opening the door for more thunderstorms. In addition to the typical afternoon sea breeze showers, an upper-level trough of low pressure is projected to move into the Mid-South and turn the winds out of the southwest. This will pull deeper tropical moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico into the Sunshine State by Friday, leading to numerous rounds of thunderstorms, some long-lasting and with heavy rain. Tropical storm formation is also possible in the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend, but specifics on that are not ascertainable at this time. Regardless, a period of wet weather is likely to return to North Florida by week’s end.