An area of disturbed weather in the southern Caribbean, Invest 92, is being monitored for likely tropical development, especially as the system nears the Yucatan Peninsula by late Thursday. The National Hurricane Center says Invest 92 has a high chance (70%) of becoming a depression or tropical storm by Friday. Long range forecast information suggests that the possible storm would then enter the Gulf of Mexico and possibly influence the weather in the southern U.S. over the weekend. Another area of interest, Invest 93, is also likely to develop quickly into a tropical storm just off the west coast of Africa, but is no immediate threat to land.
- High chance of development in or near Gulf by Friday
- System likely to stay weak, but will influence southern US
- Regardless of eventual storm track, heavy rain and flooding possible in the Southeast US and North Florida this weekend
WED 2 PM UPDATE ON INVEST 92
Satellite data suggested that Invest 92 has a decent amount of thunderstorm activity around it, but a closed low-level center of circulation was not evident. Several reliable forecast models suggest a closed low will form from the aforementioned tropical wave near the Yucatan Peninsula late Thursday or early Friday. A few of the model runs have even suggested pressure falls in the southern Gulf of Mexico indicative of tropical storm development on Friday. If a tropical cyclone were to form, an upper-level trough of low pressure would most-likely interfere and keep it weak, but it could also steer it north and maybe even northeast toward the southern US over the coming weekend. Confidence in any particular forecast solution this far in advance is still quite low, but residents near the Gulf of Mexico coastline from Texas to Florida should certainly stay informed of future developments.
Regardless of tropical storm formation, much of the state will likely receive some heavy rainfall Friday or Saturday due to the northward surge in tropical moisture. At this time, forecast data suggests that the heaviest rain will fall in the panhandle and across portions of North Florida where this tropical moisture (and possible storm) will interact with a weakening or stalling cold front. While the recent drying trend has likely mitigated a widespread flooding threat, localized flooding would certainly be possible where slow-moving and repeating showers and thunderstorms form.
WED NOON UPDATE ON INVEST 93
The National Hurricane Center has also identified an area of interest, Invest 93, a few hundred miles west of the coast of Africa. This formidable tropical wave has emerged over the warm waters of the Atlantic south of the Cape Verde Islands. Invest 93 has a high chance for development in the next day or so, but conditions are forecast to become less favorable for strengthening by the time it reaches the central Atlantic this weekend.