WRUF Weather

Humberto becomes season’s first hurricane as Gabrielle pulls away from Bermuda

Humberto became the season’s first hurricane early Wednesday, just three hours prior to the latest such development in a season since 1950.  Gabrielle, the recently re-birthed tropical storm, will be pulling away from Bermuda and weakening later today.  And by the end of the week, a new tropical storm could form (would be named Ingrid) in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  But despite the flurry of activity in the tropics, none of these systems are a threat to Florida for the foreseeable future.


The remnants of Gabrielle regenerated into a tropical storm Tuesday and passed Bermuda overnight with winds of 50 mph. An approaching trough of low pressure and increasing amounts of wind shear are now interfering with the system and will likely cause Gabrielle to become post-tropical by Friday or Saturday as it accelerates north-northeast into the north Atlantic.  Other than some long period ocean swells in New England, Gabrielle poses no threat to the United States.



Latest NHC advisory and forecast for Humberto

Satellite data has suggested an eye has been trying to form overnight on newly classified Hurricane Humberto.  A large area of thunderstorm activity has been more consistent near the center of circulation and the environment around the storm is favorable for continued strengthening. Forecast data suggests Humberto has a 36-hour window where it could strengthen a bit more before cooler waters and increasing wind shear induce some weakening.  The forecast track for Humberto is almost due north until this weakening occurs, at which time the storm will likely turn back to the west.  Humberto poses no threat to any land areas and is expected to be only a shipping interest for the coming week.



NHC says tropical wave near Yucatan Peninsula has a high chance of developing by Friday

A tropical wave approaching the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is forecast to develop into our season’s ninth named storm once it moves over the warm waters of the Southwestern Gulf.  This region has been unusually active this year already, but the future storm Ingrid could be the strongest system yet to form in this part of the basin.  Long range forecast model data suggests there will be a window of approximately 48 hours for the soon-to-be tropical storm to strengthen and that upper-level winds would carry it northwest toward the northeastern part of Mexico or the very southern tip of Texas.  While it is too early to determine the exact track or strength of this system, it is highly unlikely that it would impact the State of Florida or the rest of the United States outside of extreme south Texas.

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