5 PM THURSDAY UPDATE: DEPRESSION TEN FORMS
The National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Ten at 5 pm on Thursday. The initial estimates were that TD Ten had winds of 35 mph and was moving to the west at 6 mph. TD Ten is forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Ingrid overnight.
Original post from 4pm Thursday
Hurricane Hunters are in flight to an area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, and they may soon find that a depression or tropical storm has formed. Invest 93L, an area of interest designated by the National Hurricane Center with a “high chance” of developing, has moved out over the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche and is showing signs of developing quickly. Satellite data indicated thunderstorms had begin forming near and just northeast of the circulation, and pressures have been falling steadily for about 24 hours. We should know by 5pm whether or not the NHC will classify Invest 93L as a depression or Tropical Storm Ingrid.
FORECAST FOR INVEST 93L
Soon-to-be Tropical Storm Ingrid is expected to move very slowly through the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and upper-level conditions are favorable for strengthening. Current model data is in high agreement on the forecast track of the storm, taking it to the northwest toward the country of Mexico and making landfall somewhere between Veracruz and the Texas-Mexico border early next week. Unusually high amounts of atmospheric moisture and the slow-movement of the storm make heavy rainfall and flooding the greatest concern for a large portion of Mexico and south Texas. Uncertainly exists, however, in how strong Ingrid may become before landfall. It is possible for Ingrid to become a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane and also pose a wind and surge threat to the coastline of Mexico north of Veracruz. At the present time, soon-to-be Tropical Storm Ingrid poses no threat to the State of Florida.