WRUF Weather has been tracking it for days, and Thursday it arrives in North Florida on schedule. Another significant rainfall event, that at times will come down in buckets, will keep umbrellas busy at times through Friday morning. Gainesville has been no stranger to heavy rain recently, with more than 16 inches being recorded at the airport in the past four months, a time of year not typically known for heavy rain.
- This Evening: light and spotty showers
- Thursday: heavy rain and some thunder midday
- Friday: early morning brief showers
The rainfall will be arriving in three waves through Friday morning, with the heaviest likely occurring midday Thursday. The first wave of rain, mainly in the form of a few showers, arrives this evening. We should see a brief reprieve from the steady rainfall during the Thursday morning commute, before a second and more widespread round arrives by mid-morning. The energy associated with this wave is stronger, leading to heavy rainfall at times and even a few thunderstorms. Drier conditions are expected in the wake of this round by early evening, lasting into the overnight hours. A third and final round of showers is possible early Friday morning with the passage of a weak cold front. This episode of rain completes the three-day event, leaving us with clearing skies and climbing temperatures by the end of the weekend.
Amounts from this event will be significant, but likely occurring over a long enough period of time to prevent much in the way of flooding. Nonetheless, minor urban flooding and ponding of water on roadways will most certainly be possible during the downpours Thursday. Total rainfall accumulation through Friday morning will range from 2 to 2.5 inches near and north of a line from Cedar Key to High Springs to Starke. Further south, through much of Levy, Alachua, and Putnam counties, rainfall will likely total around an inch to 1.5 inches. Marion County and points south will generally rainfall of around an inch with this system.
A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
The atmospheric setup for this event is similar to the one a couple of Sunday’s ago when severe weather threatened the Daytona 500. Most of North Central Florida was spared from the severe thunderstorms, and this will likely be the case Thursday as well. Most of the severe weather will be concentrated over Central and Southern Florida where higher amounts of moisture and instability will reside. However, as the stalled front over Florida starts to push to the north late Thursday, a couple of stronger storms are possible from Alachua County and points south. The primary threats associated with any strong storms that do fire up will be minor wind damage and small hail. A widespread severe weather outbreak is not anticipated, but a few strong storms are certainly possible Thursday afternoon.
Tune to WRUF-TV, Cox Cable Channel 6, for live tracking of any strong storms, like us on Facebook, and follow us on Twitter @WRUFWeather for any Strong Storm Alerts in North Central Florida.