The 2014 Hurricane Season is still roughly three weeks away and no tropical storms or depressions are expected in the near future. However, a large area of tropical moisture and a relatively strong cold front (for this time of year) are likely to team up and produce unsettled weather across the state by midweek. A period or two of heavy rain and potentially strong thunderstorms are likely in most areas Wednesday and/or Thursday. This will be followed by a late-spring surge of cooler, less humid air that many Floridians will likely cherish as we inch closer to the relentless summertime heat and humidity.
The tropical moisture is associated with an upper-level area of low pressure that was seen spinning north of Puerto Rico on Sunday’s Water Vapor imagery. The cold front that will meet up with this moisture has already spawned an outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the Midwest. The front is not expected to be as volatile when it arrives in Florida on Thursday, but the added moisture from the tropical wave will certainly be enough to produce several clusters of strong thunderstorms. The severity of the storms will depend greatly on the timing of the front’s arrival and location of the tropical wave when it arrives. Both of these forecast uncertainties will become clearer as the week progresses.
PRECISION POINTS (what we know so far):
- Most areas dry until Wednesday afternoon, then only spotty t-storms
- Strong storms possible Thursday afternoon/evening
- Much drier and noticeably cooler air arrives Friday