Invest 91 was classified as a Tropical Depression last night in the National Hurricane Center’s 11pm advisory and the system sits only 80 miles east of Vero Beach. Our season’s first depression will likely become Tropical Storm Arthur later today as it crawls closer to Florida’s Treasure Coast. Tropical Depression One could then strengthen into a hurricane by week’s end, but by then the storm would be primarily a threat to the Mid-Atlantic states.
Impacts to North Florida will be minimal in the coming days, but an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected as early as Wednesday. On the north side of the storm, dry air is keeping North Florida hot and dry with low rain chances. As the storm moves north and parallels the coast, some outer bands could push inland and bring rounds of rain Wednesday through Thursday evening. The primary threat from this storm heavy rain which will be focused mainly near and east of the I-95 corridor and in east-central Florida. In North Florida 1-3 inches of rain will be possible, with higher amounts locally.
Considerable uncertainty still remains on just how close this soon-to-be tropical storm gets to the First Coast shoreline before likely accelerating to the northeast. Nonetheless, the significant wind and sea impacts from the tropical storm will likely stay just offshore. Soon-to-be Tropical Storm Arthur’s presence should leave the state by Friday, the 4th of July.
WRUF will be monitoring this situation closely over the coming days and you can always find the latest information on Twitter @WRUFWeather.