The calendar says July, but his week’s weather pattern would be more typical in the fall or spring. An unusually strong cold front will plunge southward and bring relief from the mid-summer heat to most of the nation east of the Rockies by midweek. Most fronts this time of year stall hundreds of miles to our north, but newest forecast data suggests this one might make it all the way to the Florida-Georgia border by Wednesday. The primary impacts from this weather system will be stronger thunderstorms and heavier amounts of rain, likely starting Tuesday afternoon. And even though the cooler, drier air mass behind the front likely won’t make it this far, the increase in rain chances and resulting cloud cover will reduce temperatures some by Wednesday and Thursday.
WEEK AT A GLANCE
- Tuesday: strong t-storms possible by late afternoon, some could be severe
- Wednesday: rain most-likely in morning, cloudy and cooler
- Thursday: strong t-storms return by afternoon
- Friday: typical sea breeze afternoon t-storms
SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR TUESDAY
After a mainly dry day Monday, deeper moisture will be pulled in from the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday ahead of the approaching front. By late afternoon, energy and cooler air aloft will be arriving which will create a rather unstable atmosphere across north-central Florida. Even though the cold front will still likely be a couple hundred miles to the northwest, the higher levels of instability and deeper moisture will likely trigger numerous strong thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, which could carry well into the evening hours. A few of these storms will be capable of producing wind damage and large hail.
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
Contrary to the typical slow-moving sea breeze storms, Tuesday’s activity will probably be moving at a faster clip, mitigating the flooding potential from heavy rain for areas that only see one round of storms. If multiple rounds of storms hit the same areas, however, the risk for localized flooding will increase, especially in areas of north Florida that have seen above average rainfall over the past 30 days. Locations most at risk include parts of Alachua and Marion counties, especially near and west of the I-75 corridor where there’s been a 30-day rainfall surplus of more than five inches. We will post an update on the forecast rainfall amounts this week from this front as future forecast data becomes more conclusive.