Gator fans heading west will feel the effects of a fall cold front first. We will likely have to wait until Monday to experience any relief from the heat and humidity here in Gainesville. The trip to College Station to see Florida play Texas A&M on Friday will likely be rain-free…that is, if you leave by mid-morning. Thunderstorms will become numerous here in the Sunshine State by midday. It also could be a bit stormy on the drive home Sunday, especially when motorists reach the Florida panhandle. Temperatures on Friday ahead of the front across the deep South and in College Station will be pushing 100. The front’s arrival Saturday will stir up a stiff north breeze and cool things down into the upper 80s. There is a very small chance for a brief shower midday on Saturday as the front passes, but the overall feel to the air will be much drier by late in the day. Sunday morning’s lows in eastern Texas will dip into the 60s for the first time in months, and this cooler air mass will follow our fans back home to greet North-Central Floridians on Monday and Tuesday.
Tropical Depression 18 became Tropical Storm Sandy late Monday afternoon and was located approximately 900 miles south of Miami, Florida. The upper-level environment is conducive for strengthening and water temperatures are still plenty warm, leading to higher than normal confidence that Sandy will strengthen over the next 48 hours. Some of the model guidance even suggests Sandy could strengthen rapidly at times before nearing Jamaica on Wednesday. Hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to fly into the storm this evening and the data can be viewed live on WRUF-TV6.
Tropical Storm Sandy is forecast to move to the north or north-northeast after development, likely crossing or moving in between the islands of Jamaica, Cuba, and Hispaniola mid-week. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is for [Sandy] to be a strong tropical storm or possibly a weak hurricane as it nears the island of Jamaica late on Wednesday. High pressure is expected to briefly build over the storm and possibly cause it slow as it approaches the Bahamas later in the week. Thereafter, forecast confidence is severely lacking due to the different model solutions on how strong a trough of low pressure and cold front will be over the U.S. mid-section. The track and strength of [Sandy] prior to the point when this trough begins to affect the storm will play a big role in determining the eventual track and potential influences on the state of Florida.
HISTORY OF STORMS RELATED TO SANDY
It may not feel very tropical anymore in Florida, but that doesn’t mean we can’t see tropical weather. The 2012 Hurricane Season doesn’t officially end until November 31st, but history tells us that late-season storms can and have hit the state. This is especially true when they form in the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico.
We looked at the history of storms hitting Florida during the period of October 20 – November 10 since 1900 and found that the majority of tracks came out of the Caribbean or the Gulf rather than from the Atlantic. Of the 14 storms plotted, four originated in the Gulf and six formed in the western Caribbean. The latter location is very close to where our next Tropical Storm is likely to form. Gladys was the most-recent hurricane to cross the state from the Caribbean during this 20-day period, making landfall on the Nature Coast south of Cedar Key in 1968. Tropical Storm Gordon, however, may be fresher in Floridian’s minds, following a very erratic path and making landfall twice in 1994.
THE BOTTOM LINE
While it may be too early to talk specifics on soon-to-be Sandy, it’s never too early for Floridians to prepare for a potential landfall of a tropical cyclone. To that end, it’s also never too late in the season to come up with a plan and stock up on supplies. Tropical Updates are always available on WRUF-TV6 at 20 minutes past the hour. We’re also on the radio, delivering a complete tropical update every day at 4:50pm on Florida’s 89.1, WUFT-FM. Follow @gatorweather on Twitter for breaking weather information any time of day.
In this political season of swaying polls and spirited debates, there’s something more than just partisan pundits spinning out there. This candidate pays no attention to “no-spin” zones and might just play “hard ball” with the swing state of Florida. Welcome to the stage, Tropical Storm Sandy. Who is she up against? The incumbent and persistent trough of low pressure near the U.S. East Coast.
The Incumbent’s Record
Nearly all of the tropical cyclones that have formed since September 1st have been steered clear of the U.S., mostly due to the increased wind shear that accompanied this quasi-permanent dip in the jet stream. In recent days, however, the upper-level winds have shifted to the north, making parts of the mainland vulnerable to a land-falling system should one form close to home. Tropical Storm Sandy formed in the Western Caribbean late on Monday and is quickly strengthening, likely to become a hurricane within the next 48 hours.
History tells us that storms forming in this part of the world during this time of year are most-likely to move in a north or northeastward direction. In fact, nearly all of the Sandy analogs moved near or just east of the State of Florida. Six crossed the peninsula, and four of the remaining six moved over the Bahamas. This fact alone, though, does not give Sandy a mandate to run on. Instead, we have to look at the challenger’s plan, or most-likely path.
The Challenger’s Path
Sandy will be looking for a weakness in the opponent’s shield to gain some ground pole-ward. This shield is a large ridge of high pressure that is currently parked over the Mid-Atlantic States, extending down into parts of Florida. Until this is booted, Sandy will likely remain stationary or only slowly drift north. A jab at the ridge is expected to be delivered by an approaching cold front Wednesday. When this happens, Sandy will likely accelerate northward and cross the islands of Jamaica and Cuba, nearing The Bahamas by week’s end.
When Sandy emerges back over the water from Cuba, the conflict between her and a reinforcing East Coast trough will escalate the competition. The question is, will the new frontal system be strong enough to push Sandy out to sea? Or rather, will Sandy be stronger and able to move right up the East Coast largely unimpeded? If the latter scenario plays out, Florida’s Atlantic Coast could be more directly impacted with tropical storm conditions.
We are at least five days removed from any significant influences of Tropical Storm Sandy on our state’s beaches or nation’s coastline. Recent data suggests Sandy will struggle to maintain strength over The Bahamas and likely be steered out to sea by a new cold front and trough of lower pressure. Even though chances for direct impacts from Sandy in North-Central Florida are low, we could say they are still within the “margin of error” given our known limitations of long-range forecasting of tropical cyclones.
Do Your Own Fact-Checking
Here’s how to stay informed of the very latest on Tropical Storm Sandy:
- Visit our Tracking the Tropics page for up-to-date storm info.
- Follow @GatorWeather on Twitter for breaking weather alerts.
- Watch WRUF-TV6 for your complete Tropical Weather Update at 20 past the hour.
Latest Tropical Update Video
Sandy is barely still at hurricane strength, but the storm has nearly doubled in size. Tropical Storm force winds now extend over 275 miles from the center. Sandy is unraveling a bit, thanks to an upper-level area of lower pressure creating some wind shear on the southwest side. The is evident on the satellite and radar representation, as most of Sandy’s thunderstorm activity is now displaced from the center of circulation to the north and northeast. As of Friday evening, those rain bands were rotating around the center of circulation and starting to approach Florida’s First Coast. As this process continues, Sandy will gradually become a hybrid storm later tonight, taking on both tropical and non-tropical characteristics. The hurricane has slowed in forward speed to less than 10 mph and has now turned more to the northeast. This means Sandy will now start moving further away from North-Central Florida.…Scroll down for all videos related to this story…
Tropical Storm Warnings are continue for coastal waters from the Florida-Georgia border to Daytona Beach. Inland Lake Wind Advisories have been extended until 7pm Saturday.
Sandy is transitioning to a hybrid storm tonight, meaning that the rain and wind fields will likely continue to expand northward and northwestward. Even though Sandy’s center will likely stay well off-shore, the east coast of Florida will still sustain significant impacts. Rainfall along the coast could top 2-3″ south of Melbourne, and tropical-storm force wind gusts are possible anywhere along the coast Friday and Saturday. Inland, rain impacts will likely be minimal, but windy conditions should be expected through Saturday evening. Sandy should be pulled by an upper-level trough to the northeast sometime on Saturday, at which time conditions will be quickly improving both along the coast and for inland North-Central Florida.
Recent model trends suggest that Sandy, likely a strong subtropical storm off the Mid-Atlantic states by Saturday, will also be pulled northwestward into New England on Sunday and Monday. The potential impacts from a landfalling storm of this magnitude, at this time of year, are significant. We will be posting more on this in future updates, especially as the situation becomes more clear.
LATEST VIDEOSPotential Impacts from Sandy in N-Central Florida
TRACK WITH US
Use the following resources to track the storm with us. Whether you’re watching TV, listening on the radio, pulling us up on-line, or on the go with your phone – WRUF weather is always tracking the tropics.
Spring is right around the corner, and it won’t be long until we will hear the sound of thunder nearly every day. It’s the time of year when Floridians are eager to spend more time in the sun and enjoy the numerous attractions that make this state famous. It’s also the time of year when our typically calm winter pattern turns unsettled and hazardous. This week is designated by our State’s Division of Emergency Management to educate Floridians on the various hazards that frequently impact the state and how families or businesses can prepare for these natural events. WRUF Weather will also use it as a week to prepare for an outbreak of severe weather that could impact our operations at the University of Florida’s College of Journalism and Communication and the lives of our audience. We will focus on a different potential hazard each day and share how you can avoid the danger altogether or take steps to mitigate its impact on your life or property.
More people are killed by lightning in Florida than any other state. Within the last 50 years, there have been over 450 lightning related fatalities in The Sunshine State, more than twice the number that have occurred in the second state on the list – Texas.
Very few people can ride out an entire Florida Summer without getting caught in at least one thunderstorm. Most of us actually become so accustomed to the sound of thunder and frequent flashes of lightning that we begin to overlook the lethal dangers they present.
Lightning strikes the United States approximately 25 million times a year. While it may be true your odds at getting struck are less than winning the lottery, you can lower your chances even more by playing it safe when a storm hits. There is NO gauranteed safe place outdoors during a thunderstorm. Always consider moving inside at the first sound of thunder. Also, remember to stay away from windows and off land-line phones.
An open area is the LAST place you want to be in a thunderstorm. But in the event you are caught unexpectedly, from a personal experience here’s how you know you’re in danger. Your hair will stand straight on end, not only on your arms and neck, but also on your head, and this is also accompanied by a tingling sensation. When this occurs, you’ve become a positively charged streamer and need to either run quickly to shelter, or crouch down on the balls of your feet, making as little contact with the ground as possible.
Of all the weather hazards we track at WRUF, lightning is THE MOST unpredictable phenomenon. Staying informed and aware of the risks are crucial to staying out of harm’s way. Before you head out on a stormy day, check Storm Track Doppler on WRUF-TV or online for LIVE lightning tracking.
The average speed inside a rip current is 1 to 2 feet per second, which is faster than it may sound. Speeds of up to 8 feet per second have been recorded, which is faster than Olympic Gold Medalist and former UF Swimmer Ryan Lochte can swim!
Rip currents are most threatening when the tide is high and seas are rough. Always look for the red flag warning once getting to the beach, as this indicates high surf and potentially strong currents.
It’s important to remember that rip currents don’t pull you under; they drag you away from shore. Rip currents move swiftly out to sea, so to escape a rip current, stay calm and swim parallel to the shoreline.
Meteorologist Jeff Huffman is attending and reporting from the 2014 National Hurricane Conference in Orlando, Florida this week. Follow along as he gathers and shares valuable information related to the upcoming season. Feel free to ask him questions and he’ll answer them as time allows.
Every year, we hear the forecast. Multiple forecasts, in fact. So many numbers. So many messages. But officials say there’s really only one thing to remember: “It only takes one”.
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) released their forecast for the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season today, predicting a “near-normal or below-normal” year. This follows other private forecaster’s outlooks for below-normal activity earlier in the spring. The likely development of El Niño this summer is the main driver of this year’s forecast, which typically correlates to fewer and weaker storms in the Atlantic Basin.
Officials and emergency managers in the State of Florida warn residents, however, that a seasonal forecast can be misleading.
“Overall seasonal activity does not correlate to landfall impacts. Even in below average years, people die.”
In his address at the annual Governor’s Hurricane Conference last week, National Hurricane Center Director Dr. Rick Knabb pointed out that even in last year’s relatively weak season, there were dozens of fatalities and multiple landfalls in the country of Mexico. He referenced many seasons where the overall number of storms were not related to the impacts of landfalling systems, most explicitly in 1992 and 1983. Andrew and Alicia were the only major hurricanes in those years, yet they caused catastrophic damage in south Florida and southeast Texas. Conversely, 2010 was an extremely active season in the Tropical Atlantic when 12 hurricanes formed, 5 of them major, yet none hit the United States directly.
Knabb went on to point out that Floridians are at risk every year from multiple hazards of tropical storms and hurricanes in the state of Florida. “No matter where it is you live, no matter what the seasonal forecasts say, no matter what last year was like or what the last ten years have been like, no matter how long you’ve lived here; you could experience wind or water hazards that could be life threatening this year.”
The Director of FEMA, Craig Fugate, is no stranger to hurricanes and the impact they can have on Florida. He was the state’s acting emergency management director during the infamous 2004 season, also a year when El Nino conditions were expected to develop. Florida was dealt significant impacts from four hurricanes that year, three crossing the state as a Category 3 or higher, or Major Hurricane. He echoes the same message.
“If you go back in history, there’s been no part of Florida’s coast that has not been hit by hurricanes. There’s no part of the state that’s more than 100 miles from the coast. Seasonal forecasts don’t mean anything. If you live in Florida, you better know what to do.”
New technology could make it easier for residents to understand the hazards an approaching storm could pose this year, especially if they are near a coastline but not necessarily right along the coast. A new Storm Surge Inundation map will be released by The National Hurricane Center in advance of every storm. GIS tools make this map especially useful, as it will better depict which neighborhoods, some miles from the coast, that could be flooded by a storm surge and how high the water could rise above ground level for that particular location.
But even with the new tools and a forecast for a relatively “mild” season, many Floridians are likely complacent. The last time a hurricane hit the state, YouTube and Facebook were just a year old and Twitter didn’t even exist. For a state that averages one landfall every other year yet hasn’t seen one since 2005, probabilities suggest Florida is now overdue.
Brian Koon, Director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, says the risk to Floridians has not changed. “We’re going to get hurricanes in the future. It’s imperative that Floridians take hurricane season seriously and prepare accordingly.”
The message from officials this year is clear. Updated forecasts and new technology won’t keep Floridians safe. It’s up to the citizens to act, get a plan, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Fugate ended his comments with this suggestion:
“If you have a plan and you know what you’re doing, enjoy the summer.”
Two disturbances on both sides of the peninsula will help trigger showers and thunderstorms across North Florida today. A few isolated showers could move inland in the early morning hours, but stronger activity begins to develop in the late afternoon hours in Gainesville. Some stronger and more numerous storms will be possible mainly east of I-75 and near the St. Johns River Valley later in the day. The increased cloud cover and coverage of the storms will lead to slightly below average temperatures, capping them in the upper 80s today.
Rain chances remain elevated for Tuesday due to tropical moisture overhead and a stronger Atlantic sea breeze pushing further inland. Rain chances go down slightly midweek and then increase once again for the end of the week as southwesterly flow starts to develop and brings in deeper tropical moisture to help to bring both sea breezes inland each and every afternoon.
An upper level trough approaching North Florida will pull deeper tropical moisture in over our area that will push rain chances up significantly this weekend and into the start of the last week of July.
Ridging over the area will keep most rain chances rather spotty and brief, with the highest chances to the North and West. Some storms could be accompanied by a brief downpour and a few rumbles of thunder, but overall it should shape up to be a typical Floridian summer day, with plenty of time to enjoy the outdoors. It will be hot though, so drink plenty of water if you’re outside. As always, don’t forget you can track any storms that do form live on our interactive radar here on our website.
Deeper moisture moves in as the trough settles right over our area, and an area of low pressure forms to our north. With the increased moisture and more lifting and instability from the trough, coverage of rain and storms will be more widespread, and starting earlier in the day. Gainesville and Alachua county could see a shower or storm as early as 11AM on Sunday, with periods of heavy rainfall lasting through 7PM. Some storms could become strong, with heavy downpours, gusty winds and lightning, but the main threat will be heavy downpours and localized flooding. Monday will be a similar story, with a higher threat of stronger thunderstorms.
The trough lingers Tuesday, with rain chances remaining elevated. However, rain chances will diminish and return to typical late afternoon pop up thunderstorm activity Wednesday through Saturday.
After some stormy and dreary weather Tuesday and Wednesday, North Florida experienced an unusual influx of dry air Thursday. We saw mostly sunny skies, and felt that humidity drop just a bit for Thursday afternoon. For Friday, most areas will stay dry along and west of the I-75 corridor, but some spotty showers may move inland off of the Atlantic Sea Breeze. Most of these showers will stay confined in the St. John’s River Valley counties (Clay, Putnam, Volusia), but a few may push or drift towards the I-75 corridor from 3 to 6PM. Any rain though will be brief and spotty in nature. There will still be plenty of sunshine to enjoy the outdoors, and all areas will stay dry after 7PM if you plan on heading out after work or school tonight.
Saturday and Sunday will be a different story. More moisture is pulling into the atmosphere, as a trough approaches from the northwest. A wave of energy ahead of the trough may bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area on Saturday, mainly from 2 to 7Pm. A few of those storms could become strong, with heavy rain. gusty winds, and lightning. As always, you can track them live on our interactive radar right here on our website.
Sunday, the trough will be right over us here in North Florida. We cuold see periods of heavy rain possible starting as early as 11AM, and lasting through the early evening. We will have more details on the timing of Sunday’s rain as it gets closer, but for now we encourage residents to have indoor plans for Sunday.
8 AM UPDATE: Thunderstorms got an early start today thanks to a plume of deep moisture moving in out of the Gulf of Mexico ahead of an unusually strong front slated to arrive tomorrow. North Florida will dry out in the late morning and the break in activity will allow for the atmosphere to destabilize. Once moisture pushes in off the Gulf in the afternoon hours some strong to severe storms will be possible mainly east of I-75.
[Posted on Monday] An abnormally strong cold front for July standards has been working its way through the Eastern United States. The front, already responsible for well below average temperatures in the Midwest and strong storms in the Northeast, will dive into the Southeast Tuesday morning. Although the front will be well to the north, it will interfere with North Florida’s weather patterns as early as Tuesday.
The cold front will begin to dive into the Southeast, but will stall within a hundred miles of the Florida/Georgia line. The front will help to kick start the atmosphere and draw in deep Gulf moisture, making strong storms possible during the afternoon and early evening hours. The difference from a normal summer day? Storms on Tuesday will likely begin near the lunch hour and be widely scattered through drive time. Some showers and storms could even linger well into the evening hours. The strongest storms will likely produce excessive lightning, strong gusty winds, and small hail between noon and 8PM. The greatest chance for severe weather lies along and east of Highway 301 later in the day. Most of the rainfall on Tuesday will end around midnight with local rainfall accumulations approaching 1-2″.
The cold front will start to slide further south on Wednesday, sparking showers and thunderstorms as early at 3AM in western communities. The rain will likely take form in Alachua County before 7AM and will linger through most of the morning. The rain will most likely be light, but steady in nature and with some heavier rainfall possible as well. The rain will most likely subside in Alachua County after 3PM with lingering clouds for the rest of the day. Rain should end after 6PM on Wednesday near the Atlantic Coast.
The Rest of the Week:
Latest data now suggest the cold front will likely pass through North Florida on Wednesday night and bring in drier and less humid air for the end of the week. Rain chances will be significantly lower from Alachua County northward on Thursday and Friday, but the drier air will allow temperatures to rise into the low to mid 90′s. Then, rain chances increase as typical sea breeze interactions return for the weekend.
Be sure to follow us on Twitter @WRUFWeather or go online to WRUFWeather.com for updates on the arrival of the strongest storms. Don’t forget, you can track the storms with us, ask questions to the WRUF Weather team, and even watch WRUF-TV live from your computer.
The calendar says July, but his week’s weather pattern would be more typical in the fall or spring. An unusually strong cold front will plunge southward and bring relief from the mid-summer heat to most of the nation east of the Rockies by midweek. Most fronts this time of year stall hundreds of miles to our north, but newest forecast data suggests this one might make it all the way to the Florida-Georgia border by Wednesday. The primary impacts from this weather system will be stronger thunderstorms and heavier amounts of rain, likely starting Tuesday afternoon. And even though the cooler, drier air mass behind the front likely won’t make it this far, the increase in rain chances and resulting cloud cover will reduce temperatures some by Wednesday and Thursday.
WEEK AT A GLANCE
- Tuesday: strong t-storms possible by late afternoon, some could be severe
- Wednesday: rain most-likely in morning, cloudy and cooler
- Thursday: strong t-storms return by afternoon
- Friday: typical sea breeze afternoon t-storms
SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR TUESDAY
After a mainly dry day Monday, deeper moisture will be pulled in from the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday ahead of the approaching front. By late afternoon, energy and cooler air aloft will be arriving which will create a rather unstable atmosphere across north-central Florida. Even though the cold front will still likely be a couple hundred miles to the northwest, the higher levels of instability and deeper moisture will likely trigger numerous strong thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, which could carry well into the evening hours. A few of these storms will be capable of producing wind damage and large hail.
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
Contrary to the typical slow-moving sea breeze storms, Tuesday’s activity will probably be moving at a faster clip, mitigating the flooding potential from heavy rain for areas that only see one round of storms. If multiple rounds of storms hit the same areas, however, the risk for localized flooding will increase, especially in areas of north Florida that have seen above average rainfall over the past 30 days. Locations most at risk include parts of Alachua and Marion counties, especially near and west of the I-75 corridor where there’s been a 30-day rainfall surplus of more than five inches. We will post an update on the forecast rainfall amounts this week from this front as future forecast data becomes more conclusive.
We saw some gloomy weather Friday and Saturday here in North Florida, with widespread, strong thunderstorms. On both days, rainfall totals neared or surpassed 2 inches in some locations, and many areas saw flooding. Flood advisories and warnings were issued for several counties, including Alachua. This soggy weather was all thanks to a trough stalled out over the North Florida area.
The pattern changes Sunday, as the trough starts to fall apart and ridging builds over Central Florida. Rain chances go down, but we still have the chance of a few isolated thunderstorms forming along the sea breezes early in the afternoon, and moving inland Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday afternoons. Outside of these isolated storms, we’ll see plenty of sunshine. The sunshine will work in tandem with high humidity to drive our heat indices near or past 100 degrees! Residents working or spending any time outdoors are encouraged to drink plenty of water.
Relief from the heat comes in the form of a cold front appraoching from the NW on Wednesday. The relief is not because of cold air behind the front. In fact, the front will be stalling to our north, keeping the cold air contained over our northern neighbors. However, with the stalled frontal boundary over us, we’ll see some widespread showers and thunderstorms, not to mention increased cloud cover, Wednesday through Friday. Remember you can always track the storms live on our interactive radar.
Saturday Morning Update:
A trough stationed over the area and a weak area of low pressure just off the coast of Jacksonville will work in tandem to produce some stronger storms today, especially in the along and east of the I-75 corridor. Expect heavy downpours, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. With the heavy rainfall we saw Friday evening, we could see some localized flooding. Residents are encouraged to make alternative plans to outdoor activities, and to head indoors if storm clouds approach. Remember you can always track the storms with us live on our interactive radar, right here on our website.
Several weak, but important, weather features are making for a tricky forecast over the coming days. However, one thing is for certain – umbrellas should be a part of the ensemble this weekend.
- North Central Florida is rounding out the week with strong westerly flow making Friday’s rain event almost identical to Thursday’s.
- A shift in the winds more out of the east will lead to stronger storms further inland along the I-75 corridor, especially where the sea breezes collide.
- Drier air moving in on Sunday will make the last day of your weekend the one most favorable for outdoor plans.
The Gulf sea breeze will remain dominant triggering rain in the early morning hours along the nature coast. Stronger activity will develop after 1 pm and will primarily remain to the north of Gainesville (along the I-10 corridor), eventually shifting to the east of Hwy 301 during the late afternoon and evening hours. Skies should clear by 10 pm.
The activity will be scattered, with locally heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms
Alachua county is going to see stronger activity in the afternoon. The winds shift to a more dominant easterly flow and the Atlantic sea breeze takes control, causing a merger to occur further inland and closer to the I-75 corridor.
Folks should still expect some pop-up afternoon showers but much more scattered and with less coverage overall due to to a pocket drier air moving in.
Same story different day – hot, humid and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon hours of Tuesday. Temperatures and the heat index will be increasing quickly through the afternoon hours ahead of showers and thunderstorms. Heat indices will be nearing the 100° and could hold there for several hours in areas that don’t receive some relief from the heat this afternoon. The greatest chance for storms will be east of I-75 and near Highway 301 where some isolated strong storms will be possible as well.
A weak tropical wave will be increasing rain chances for Wednesday and Thursday of this week. The wave will drag tropical moisture in overhead and enhance the shower and thunderstorm activity. Rain will be starting earlier and become more widespread in the afternoon hours both days. Drier air behind it will allow for rain chances to drop back down to near normal for this time of year for Friday into the weekend.
While Monday brought a typical summer pattern for North Central Florida, a tropical wave will increase rain chances by the end of the week. We’ll continue to be in a typical summer pattern for Tuesday. A few showers will be possible along the Nature Coast as early at 7AM. A dominant Gulf sea breeze will help to move showers from the Southwest to the Northeast. Expect rainfall for Marion and Alachua County after 2PM, with stronger storms possible along and East of Highway 301 after 3PM. Tuesday’s shower activity will end around 8PM.
Deeper tropical moisture arrives on Wednesday. Showers and storms start as early as 11AM on Wednesday to the west of I-75 and will become more widespread as the day goes on. Most areas of North Central Florida can expect rain by 2PM. A few stronger cells could form along Highway 301 by the middle of the afternoon, and most of the rainfall will subside by 8PM. The tropical moisture sticks around through Thursday as well, with rain starting at 1PM Thursday afternoon
A typical summer pattern is in store for this week with rain chances increasing mid-week due to a tropical wave approaching the state. This will lead to an earlier start to shower and thunderstorm activity on Wednesday in the mid morning hours and some more widespread activity. To start off the week, though, low rain chances in Gainesville for Monday afternoon with just spotty showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. The higher rain chances and higher coverage of the rain will be to the east of I-75 and near the St. John’s River Valley where some locally strong storms may be possible.
Rain chances will increase Tuesday and Wednesday as the tropical wave progresses towards the peninsula and will pull tropical moisture in overhead. Along with higher rain chances, the coverage of the rain will keep temperatures and heat indices slightly lower for Wednesday of this week. Rain chances will then return to near normal for this time of year on Thursday through the weekend with typical sea breeze interactions and heat indices creeping back up near 100°.
WRUF Weather will be tracking all of these storms online where you can track with us and send your damage reports. You can also get the latest information and any downpour alerts via Twitter @WRUFWeather.