WRUF Weather

Heat Indices Soar Through Tuesday; Soggy Weather May Bring Relief Wednesday

By on July 12th, 2014

We saw some gloomy weather Friday and Saturday here in North Florida, with widespread, strong thunderstorms. On both days, rainfall totals neared or surpassed 2 inches in some locations, and many areas saw flooding. Flood advisories and warnings were issued for several counties, including Alachua. This soggy weather was all thanks to a trough stalled out over the North Florida area.

Rainfall totals Saturday afternoon

The pattern changes Sunday, as the trough starts to fall apart and ridging builds over Central Florida. Rain chances go down, but we still have the chance of a few isolated thunderstorms forming along the sea breezes early in the afternoon, and moving inland Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday afternoons. Outside of these isolated storms, we’ll see plenty of sunshine. The sunshine will work in tandem with high humidity to drive our heat indices near or past 100 degrees! Residents working or spending any time outdoors are encouraged to drink plenty of water.

Relief from the heat comes in the form of a cold front appraoching from the NW on Wednesday. The relief is not because of cold air behind the front. In fact, the front will be stalling to our north, keeping the cold air contained over our northern neighbors. However, with the stalled frontal boundary over us, we’ll see some widespread showers and thunderstorms, not to mention increased cloud cover, Wednesday through Friday. Remember you can always track the storms live on our interactive radar.

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Active Weekend of Storms Ahead for North Florida

Saturday Morning Update:

A trough stationed over the area and a weak area of low pressure just off the coast of Jacksonville will work in tandem to produce some stronger storms today, especially in the along and east of the I-75 corridor. Expect heavy downpours, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. With the heavy rainfall we saw Friday evening, we could see some localized flooding. Residents are encouraged to make alternative plans to outdoor activities, and to head indoors if storm clouds approach. Remember you can always track the storms with us live on our interactive radar, right here on our website.

 

Several weak, but important, weather features are making for a tricky forecast over the coming days.  However, one thing is for certain – umbrellas should be a part of the ensemble this weekend.

Precision Points

  •  North Central Florida is rounding out the week with strong westerly flow making Friday’s rain event almost identical to Thursday’s.
  • A shift in the winds more out of the east will lead to stronger storms further inland along the I-75 corridor, especially where the sea breezes collide.
  • Drier air moving in on Sunday will make the last day of your weekend the one most favorable for outdoor plans.

Weekend Update-WRUF

Friday

The Gulf sea breeze will remain dominant triggering rain in the early morning hours along the nature coast.  Stronger activity will develop after 1 pm and will primarily remain to the north of Gainesville (along the I-10 corridor), eventually shifting to the east of Hwy 301 during the late afternoon and evening hours.  Skies should clear by 10 pm.

The activity will be scattered, with locally heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms

Saturday

Alachua county is going to see stronger activity in the afternoon. The winds shift to a more dominant easterly flow and the Atlantic sea breeze takes control, causing a merger to occur further inland and closer to the I-75  corridor.

Sunday 

Folks should still expect some pop-up afternoon showers but much more scattered and with less coverage overall due to to a pocket drier air moving in.

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Typical Summer Day Ahead of Tropical Moisture

By on July 8th, 2014

Same story different day – hot, humid and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon hours of Tuesday. Temperatures and the heat index will be increasing quickly through the afternoon hours ahead of showers and thunderstorms. Heat indices will be nearing the 100° and could hold there for several hours in areas that don’t receive some relief from the heat this afternoon. The greatest chance for storms will be east of I-75 and near Highway 301 where some isolated strong storms will be possible as well.

A weak tropical wave will be increasing rain chances for Wednesday and Thursday of this week. The wave will drag tropical moisture in overhead and enhance the shower and thunderstorm activity. Rain will be starting earlier and become more widespread in the afternoon hours both days. Drier air behind it will allow for rain chances to drop back down to near normal for this time of year for Friday into the weekend.

You can track the storms with us each and every afternoon as well as find the latest forecast on the Weather on the 6′s.

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Tropical Moisture Bumps Rain Chances By Wednesday

By on July 7th, 2014

While Monday brought a typical summer pattern for North Central Florida, a tropical wave will increase rain chances by the end of the week. We’ll continue to be in a typical summer pattern for Tuesday. A few showers will be possible along the Nature Coast as early at 7AM. A dominant Gulf sea breeze will help to move showers from the Southwest to the Northeast. Expect rainfall for Marion and Alachua County after 2PM, with stronger storms possible along and East of Highway 301 after 3PM. Tuesday’s shower activity will end around 8PM.

Deeper tropical moisture arrives Wednesday and lingers on Thursday.

Deeper tropical moisture arrives on Wednesday. Showers and storms start as early as 11AM on Wednesday to the west of I-75 and will become more widespread as the day goes on. Most areas of North Central Florida can expect rain by 2PM. A few stronger cells could form along Highway 301 by the middle of the afternoon, and most of the rainfall will subside by 8PM. The tropical moisture sticks around through Thursday as well, with rain starting at 1PM Thursday afternoon

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Rain Chances Increasing Mid-Week in North Florida

By on July 7th, 2014

A typical summer pattern is in store for this week with rain chances increasing mid-week due to a tropical wave approaching the state. This will lead to an earlier start to shower and thunderstorm activity on Wednesday in the mid morning hours and some more widespread activity. To start off the week, though, low rain chances in Gainesville for Monday afternoon with just spotty showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. The higher rain chances and higher coverage of the rain will be to the east of I-75 and near the St. John’s River Valley where some locally strong storms may be possible.

 

Rain chances will increase Tuesday and Wednesday as the tropical wave progresses towards the peninsula and will pull tropical moisture in overhead. Along with higher rain chances, the coverage of the rain will keep temperatures and heat indices slightly lower for Wednesday of this week. Rain chances will then return to near normal for this time of year on Thursday through the weekend with typical sea breeze interactions and heat indices creeping back up near 100°.

 

WRUF Weather will be tracking all of these storms online where you can track with us and send your damage reports. You can also get the latest information and any downpour alerts via Twitter @WRUFWeather.

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Scattered Storms Possible Through Monday; Slightly Drier Midweek

By on July 5th, 2014

A disturbance off the Atlantic coast of Jacksonville will bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms to portions of North and Central Florida this afternoon, moving from east to west. Some of these storms will be strong in nature, with heavy downpours, gusty winds and frequent lightning possible. The heaviest of the activity will be concentrated in the St. John’s River Valley and into Central Florida. Remember, you can always track the storms live on our interactive radar right here on this website. Alachua and Colombia counties should be dry by 8pm, so residents there won’t have to dodge rain if they’re headed out for Saturday evening, but showers and storms may linger in some of the southern and eastern counties through 10 or 11pm.

On Sunday and Monday, lingering low pressure in the wake of a front that settled over the area on Friday will allow scattered thunderstorms to develop on both afternoons. With cold air in the upper atmosphere, and lots of daytime heating to fuel stronger cells, some of these storms produce areas of heavy downpours, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and some localized flooding, with the possibility of some of the storms becoming severe. We’ll have live updates on WRUF-TV Cox cable 6 if there is any severe weather, and you can always follow us on twitter @WRUFWeather for severe weather and downpour alerts for Alachua county.

Sunday’s storms will develop along both coasts in the early afternoon and then progress inland into the late evening, with a sea breeze merger taking place over the St. John’s River valley.

By the middle of the week, high pressure develops in the gulf. Deep tropical moisture will remain over North Florida, but the ridge of high pressure will cut off the lift necessary for widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop. Rain chances will go down Tuesday and Wednesday, but temperatures and heat indices climb quickly. Drink plenty of water! Scattered and widespread thunderstorm activity returns for the end of the week, as a cold front moves in from the northwest.

 

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Hot and Possibly Stormy for Fourth of July Weekend

By on July 4th, 2014

A trough descending from the north will stir up some afternoon showers and storms this Independence Day weekend in North Florida. We saw some isolated, but locally strong storms move from west to east on Friday afternoon, putting a damper on some residents’ fourth of July plans. For Saturday and Sunday, the trough lifts back to the north, bringing some more widespread storm activity both days. Unfortunately, this weekend doesn’t look like it will be the best for any outdoor activities. We’ll be tracking the storms for you all weekend long at the WRUF Weather Center. As always, you can track any storms that form live on our interactive radar, or follow us on twitter @WRUFWeather for downpour alerts in Alachua County. That way, you’ll know just when rain is headed your way, and when you need to take cover indoors from heavy rain, damaging winds, or lightning.

 

Even deeper moisture will move into the area by Monday, pushing rain chances up even further for our first Monday of July. By Tuesday or Wednesday, however, a ridge of high pressure starts to set up in the gulf. Depending on where the center of the ridge forms, we may have a chance to dry out a bit by the middle of the week. We’ll be monitoring that for you here at WRUF Weather as we move into the weekend.

 

Outside of rain, of course it will be hot. Heat indices approach 100 in many locations Saturday and Sunday. By now, we don’t have to remind North Floridians to take precautions from the heat, including drinking plenty of fluids, taking frequent breaks in the shade, and wearing light-colored, loose-fitting clothing. Heat indices will climb into the middle of the week, due to the aforementioned drying trend.

 

 

 

 

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Arthur Could be a Category 2 by Landfall in North Carolina Tonight

Now with winds of 90 mph, and a forecast for them to possibly reach 105 mph before landfall, Hurricane Arthur poses a significant threat to life and property for residents along the outer banks of North Carolina. Mandatory evacuations went into effect this morning for most coastal locations and preparations were being rushed to completion in neighboring communities, such as Morehead City and Wilmington where the storm will first hit this evening. The winds from Arthur will have the greatest impact near and east of where the center of circulation tracks, which at this time is expected to be near or just offshore. Storm surge flooding in most areas will average 2 to 4 feet, but could be locally higher should the storm wobble west of its present track. Due to the fast movement of Arthur, its forecast track to brush by the coast, and its relatively small size, inland flooding will likely not be widespread with this system. However, any tropical storm or hurricane (even weak ones) can cause localized flooding in a short period of time.

Arthur became the first hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season as of the 5am advisory from the National Hurricane Center this morning. At the time, maximum sustained winds were reported to be around 75 mph. Since then, thunderstorms have wrapped closer to the center, it has developed an eye wall, and Arthur has strengthened considerably. Hurricane Hunters even measured wind gusts near 100 mph in the eastern quadrant of the storm earlier today. Arthur is a very small, compact storm, with hurricane force winds only extending 25 miles from the center.

Landfall is expected tonight near or possibly just east of Morehead City, North Carolina. Prior to landfall, the storm will come very close to shore near Wilmington this afternoon, then parallel the coast for several hours through the state’s outer banks. Thereafter, Arthur will begin the process of becoming “extra-tropical”, interacting with an approaching front and delivering heavy rain and possible coastal flooding to parts of New England on Friday and Saturday.

Even though Arthur is no longer a direct threat to Florida (and maybe never was), the rip current risk along the First Coast beaches will remain moderate to high thanks to large ocean swells and an off-shore wind. Elsewhere across the state, conditions will return to normal today with only typical afternoon scattered showers or thunderstorms. Rain chances will diminish some on Friday across the northern third of the state, but remain elevated elsewhere through Saturday.

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Typical Summer Day as Tropical Storm Arthur Remains Offshore

By on July 2nd, 2014

Tropical Storm Arthur strengthened in the overnight hours off the east coast of Florida and will continue to make it’s way to the north and east and up the eastern seaboard. Despite the storm off the coast, North Florida will have a typical summer weather pattern for Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms and heat indices near 100°.

Some of the outer bands from Arthur could make their way onshore, however. Most of that activity will remain near Highway 301 and points eastward. Just a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms near and west of I-75 through the afternoon hours.

 

 

 

Rain chances will increase on Thursday as Arthur continues progesses to the northeast and parallels the eastern seaboard. Southwesterly slow will set up for the end of the the week and keep rain chances elevated as it sends the Atlantic sea breeze inland. You can track the storms with us online at WRUFWeather.com.

 

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Newly formed Arthur could be a hurricane by Thursday; little or no inland impact expected

By on July 1st, 2014

Tropical Depression One was upgraded to Tropical Storm Arthur in the National Hurricane Center’s 11am advisory, at which time the system sat only 95 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral. Tropical Storm Arthur will continue to move northwest or north along Florida’s east coast and could strengthen into a hurricane by week’s end, but by then the storm would be primarily only a threat to the Mid-Atlantic states.

Projected rainfall accumulation across the state through Saturday

Impacts to North Florida will be minimal in the coming days, but an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected as early as Wednesday. On the north side of the storm, dry air is keeping North Florida hot and dry with low rain chances. As the storm moves north and parallels the coast, some outer bands could push inland and bring rounds of rain Wednesday through Thursday evening. The primary threat from this storm heavy rain which will be focused mainly near and east of the I-95 corridor and in east-central Florida. In North Florida 1-3 inches of rain will be possible, with higher amounts locally.

 

Considerable uncertainty still remains on just how close the tropical storm gets to the First Coast shoreline before likely accelerating to the northeast.  Nonetheless, the significant wind and sea impacts from the tropical storm will likely stay just offshore. Tropical Storm Arthur’s presence should leave the state by Friday, the 4th of July.

 

WRUF will be monitoring this situation closely over the coming days and you can always find the latest information on Twitter @WRUFWeather.

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