WRUF Weather

Hope You’ve Enjoyed the Dry Weather; Storms Return For the Weekend

By on July 18th, 2014

After some stormy and dreary weather Tuesday and Wednesday, North Florida experienced an unusual influx of dry air Thursday. We saw mostly sunny skies, and felt that humidity drop just a bit for Thursday afternoon. For Friday, most areas will stay dry along and west of the I-75 corridor, but some spotty showers may move inland off of the Atlantic Sea Breeze. Most of these showers will stay confined in the St. John’s River Valley counties (Clay, Putnam, Volusia), but a few may push or drift towards the I-75 corridor from 3 to 6PM. Any rain though will be brief and spotty in nature. There will still be plenty of sunshine to enjoy the outdoors, and all areas will stay dry after 7PM if you plan on heading out after work or school tonight.

Saturday and Sunday will be a different story. More moisture is pulling into the atmosphere, as a trough approaches from the northwest. A wave of energy ahead of the trough may bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area on Saturday, mainly from 2 to 7Pm. A few of those storms could become strong, with heavy rain. gusty winds, and lightning. As always, you can track them live on our interactive radar right here on our website.

Sunday, the trough will be right over us here in North Florida. We cuold see periods of heavy rain possible starting as early as 11AM, and lasting through the early evening. We will have more details on the timing of Sunday’s rain as it gets closer, but for now we encourage residents to have indoor plans for Sunday.

 

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Strong Storms and Heavy Rain Mark Arrival of Unusual Front

By on July 14th, 2014

8 AM UPDATE: Thunderstorms got an early start today thanks to a plume of deep moisture moving in out of the Gulf of Mexico ahead of an unusually strong front slated to arrive tomorrow. North Florida will dry out in the late morning and the break in activity will allow for the atmosphere to destabilize. Once moisture pushes in off the Gulf in the afternoon hours some strong to severe storms will be possible mainly east of I-75.

[Posted on Monday] An abnormally strong cold front for July standards has been working its way through the Eastern United States. The front, already responsible for well below average temperatures in the Midwest and strong storms in the Northeast, will dive into the Southeast Tuesday morning. Although the front will be well to the north, it will interfere with North Florida’s weather patterns as early as Tuesday.

Tuesday:

The cold front will begin to dive into the Southeast, but will stall within a hundred miles of the Florida/Georgia line. The front will help to kick start the atmosphere and draw in deep Gulf moisture, making strong storms possible during the afternoon and early evening hours. The difference from a normal summer day? Storms on Tuesday will likely begin near the lunch hour and be widely scattered through drive time. Some showers and storms could even linger well into the evening hours. The strongest storms will likely produce excessive lightning, strong gusty winds, and small hail between noon and 8PM. The greatest chance for severe weather lies along and east of Highway 301 later in the day. Most of the rainfall on Tuesday will end around midnight with local rainfall accumulations approaching 1-2″.

Wednesday:

The cold front will start to slide further south on Wednesday, sparking showers and thunderstorms as early at 3AM in western communities. The rain will likely take form in Alachua County before 7AM and will linger through most of the morning. The rain will most likely be light, but steady in nature and with some heavier rainfall possible as well. The rain will most likely subside in Alachua County after 3PM with lingering clouds for the rest of the day. Rain should end after 6PM on Wednesday near the Atlantic Coast.

The Rest of the Week:

Latest data now suggest the cold front will likely pass through North Florida on Wednesday night and bring in drier and less humid air for the end of the week. Rain chances will be significantly lower from Alachua County northward on Thursday and Friday, but the drier air will allow temperatures to rise into the low to mid 90′s. Then, rain chances increase as typical sea breeze interactions return for the weekend.

Be sure to follow us on Twitter @WRUFWeather or go online to WRUFWeather.com for updates on the arrival of the strongest storms. Don’t forget, you can track the storms with us, ask questions to the WRUF Weather team, and even watch WRUF-TV live from your computer.

Posted in Feature Story, Forecast, Heavy Rain, Severe Weather | Leave a comment

Unusual July Cold Front Brings Possible Severe Weather Midweek

By on July 13th, 2014

The calendar says July, but his week’s weather pattern would be more typical in the fall or spring.  An unusually strong cold front will plunge southward and bring relief from the mid-summer heat to most of the nation east of the Rockies by midweek.  Most fronts this time of year stall hundreds of miles to our north, but newest forecast data suggests this one might make it all the way to the Florida-Georgia border by Wednesday.  The primary impacts from this weather system will be stronger thunderstorms and heavier amounts of rain, likely starting Tuesday afternoon.  And even though the cooler, drier air mass behind the front likely won’t make it this far, the increase in rain chances and resulting cloud cover will reduce temperatures some by Wednesday and Thursday.

WEEK AT A GLANCE

  • Tuesday: strong t-storms possible by late afternoon, some could be severe
  • Wednesday: rain most-likely in morning, cloudy and cooler
  • Thursday: strong t-storms return by afternoon
  • Friday: typical sea breeze afternoon t-storms

SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR TUESDAY

After a mainly dry day Monday, deeper moisture will be pulled in from the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday ahead of the approaching front.  By late afternoon, energy and cooler air aloft will be arriving which will create a rather unstable atmosphere across north-central Florida.  Even though the cold front will still likely be a couple hundred miles to the northwest, the higher levels of instability and deeper moisture will likely trigger numerous strong thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, which could carry well into the evening hours.  A few of these storms will be capable of producing wind damage and large hail.

HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL

Contrary to the typical slow-moving sea breeze storms, Tuesday’s activity will probably be moving at a faster clip, mitigating the flooding potential from heavy rain for areas that only see one round of storms.  If multiple rounds of storms hit the same areas, however, the risk for localized flooding will increase, especially in areas of north Florida that have seen above average rainfall over the past 30 days.  Locations most at risk include parts of Alachua and Marion counties, especially near and west of the I-75 corridor where there’s been a 30-day rainfall surplus of more than five inches.  We will post an update on the forecast rainfall amounts this week from this front as future forecast data becomes more conclusive.

Posted in Severe Weather | Leave a comment

Heat Indices Soar Through Tuesday; Soggy Weather May Bring Relief Wednesday

By on July 12th, 2014

We saw some gloomy weather Friday and Saturday here in North Florida, with widespread, strong thunderstorms. On both days, rainfall totals neared or surpassed 2 inches in some locations, and many areas saw flooding. Flood advisories and warnings were issued for several counties, including Alachua. This soggy weather was all thanks to a trough stalled out over the North Florida area.

Rainfall totals Saturday afternoon

The pattern changes Sunday, as the trough starts to fall apart and ridging builds over Central Florida. Rain chances go down, but we still have the chance of a few isolated thunderstorms forming along the sea breezes early in the afternoon, and moving inland Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday afternoons. Outside of these isolated storms, we’ll see plenty of sunshine. The sunshine will work in tandem with high humidity to drive our heat indices near or past 100 degrees! Residents working or spending any time outdoors are encouraged to drink plenty of water.

Relief from the heat comes in the form of a cold front appraoching from the NW on Wednesday. The relief is not because of cold air behind the front. In fact, the front will be stalling to our north, keeping the cold air contained over our northern neighbors. However, with the stalled frontal boundary over us, we’ll see some widespread showers and thunderstorms, not to mention increased cloud cover, Wednesday through Friday. Remember you can always track the storms live on our interactive radar.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Active Weekend of Storms Ahead for North Florida

Saturday Morning Update:

A trough stationed over the area and a weak area of low pressure just off the coast of Jacksonville will work in tandem to produce some stronger storms today, especially in the along and east of the I-75 corridor. Expect heavy downpours, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. With the heavy rainfall we saw Friday evening, we could see some localized flooding. Residents are encouraged to make alternative plans to outdoor activities, and to head indoors if storm clouds approach. Remember you can always track the storms with us live on our interactive radar, right here on our website.

 

Several weak, but important, weather features are making for a tricky forecast over the coming days.  However, one thing is for certain – umbrellas should be a part of the ensemble this weekend.

Precision Points

  •  North Central Florida is rounding out the week with strong westerly flow making Friday’s rain event almost identical to Thursday’s.
  • A shift in the winds more out of the east will lead to stronger storms further inland along the I-75 corridor, especially where the sea breezes collide.
  • Drier air moving in on Sunday will make the last day of your weekend the one most favorable for outdoor plans.

Weekend Update-WRUF

Friday

The Gulf sea breeze will remain dominant triggering rain in the early morning hours along the nature coast.  Stronger activity will develop after 1 pm and will primarily remain to the north of Gainesville (along the I-10 corridor), eventually shifting to the east of Hwy 301 during the late afternoon and evening hours.  Skies should clear by 10 pm.

The activity will be scattered, with locally heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms

Saturday

Alachua county is going to see stronger activity in the afternoon. The winds shift to a more dominant easterly flow and the Atlantic sea breeze takes control, causing a merger to occur further inland and closer to the I-75  corridor.

Sunday 

Folks should still expect some pop-up afternoon showers but much more scattered and with less coverage overall due to to a pocket drier air moving in.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Typical Summer Day Ahead of Tropical Moisture

By on July 8th, 2014

Same story different day – hot, humid and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon hours of Tuesday. Temperatures and the heat index will be increasing quickly through the afternoon hours ahead of showers and thunderstorms. Heat indices will be nearing the 100° and could hold there for several hours in areas that don’t receive some relief from the heat this afternoon. The greatest chance for storms will be east of I-75 and near Highway 301 where some isolated strong storms will be possible as well.

A weak tropical wave will be increasing rain chances for Wednesday and Thursday of this week. The wave will drag tropical moisture in overhead and enhance the shower and thunderstorm activity. Rain will be starting earlier and become more widespread in the afternoon hours both days. Drier air behind it will allow for rain chances to drop back down to near normal for this time of year for Friday into the weekend.

You can track the storms with us each and every afternoon as well as find the latest forecast on the Weather on the 6′s.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Tropical Moisture Bumps Rain Chances By Wednesday

By on July 7th, 2014

While Monday brought a typical summer pattern for North Central Florida, a tropical wave will increase rain chances by the end of the week. We’ll continue to be in a typical summer pattern for Tuesday. A few showers will be possible along the Nature Coast as early at 7AM. A dominant Gulf sea breeze will help to move showers from the Southwest to the Northeast. Expect rainfall for Marion and Alachua County after 2PM, with stronger storms possible along and East of Highway 301 after 3PM. Tuesday’s shower activity will end around 8PM.

Deeper tropical moisture arrives Wednesday and lingers on Thursday.

Deeper tropical moisture arrives on Wednesday. Showers and storms start as early as 11AM on Wednesday to the west of I-75 and will become more widespread as the day goes on. Most areas of North Central Florida can expect rain by 2PM. A few stronger cells could form along Highway 301 by the middle of the afternoon, and most of the rainfall will subside by 8PM. The tropical moisture sticks around through Thursday as well, with rain starting at 1PM Thursday afternoon

Posted in Forecast, Hour-by-Hour | Leave a comment

Rain Chances Increasing Mid-Week in North Florida

By on July 7th, 2014

A typical summer pattern is in store for this week with rain chances increasing mid-week due to a tropical wave approaching the state. This will lead to an earlier start to shower and thunderstorm activity on Wednesday in the mid morning hours and some more widespread activity. To start off the week, though, low rain chances in Gainesville for Monday afternoon with just spotty showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. The higher rain chances and higher coverage of the rain will be to the east of I-75 and near the St. John’s River Valley where some locally strong storms may be possible.

 

Rain chances will increase Tuesday and Wednesday as the tropical wave progresses towards the peninsula and will pull tropical moisture in overhead. Along with higher rain chances, the coverage of the rain will keep temperatures and heat indices slightly lower for Wednesday of this week. Rain chances will then return to near normal for this time of year on Thursday through the weekend with typical sea breeze interactions and heat indices creeping back up near 100°.

 

WRUF Weather will be tracking all of these storms online where you can track with us and send your damage reports. You can also get the latest information and any downpour alerts via Twitter @WRUFWeather.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Scattered Storms Possible Through Monday; Slightly Drier Midweek

By on July 5th, 2014

A disturbance off the Atlantic coast of Jacksonville will bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms to portions of North and Central Florida this afternoon, moving from east to west. Some of these storms will be strong in nature, with heavy downpours, gusty winds and frequent lightning possible. The heaviest of the activity will be concentrated in the St. John’s River Valley and into Central Florida. Remember, you can always track the storms live on our interactive radar right here on this website. Alachua and Colombia counties should be dry by 8pm, so residents there won’t have to dodge rain if they’re headed out for Saturday evening, but showers and storms may linger in some of the southern and eastern counties through 10 or 11pm.

On Sunday and Monday, lingering low pressure in the wake of a front that settled over the area on Friday will allow scattered thunderstorms to develop on both afternoons. With cold air in the upper atmosphere, and lots of daytime heating to fuel stronger cells, some of these storms produce areas of heavy downpours, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and some localized flooding, with the possibility of some of the storms becoming severe. We’ll have live updates on WRUF-TV Cox cable 6 if there is any severe weather, and you can always follow us on twitter @WRUFWeather for severe weather and downpour alerts for Alachua county.

Sunday’s storms will develop along both coasts in the early afternoon and then progress inland into the late evening, with a sea breeze merger taking place over the St. John’s River valley.

By the middle of the week, high pressure develops in the gulf. Deep tropical moisture will remain over North Florida, but the ridge of high pressure will cut off the lift necessary for widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop. Rain chances will go down Tuesday and Wednesday, but temperatures and heat indices climb quickly. Drink plenty of water! Scattered and widespread thunderstorm activity returns for the end of the week, as a cold front moves in from the northwest.

 

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Hot and Possibly Stormy for Fourth of July Weekend

By on July 4th, 2014

A trough descending from the north will stir up some afternoon showers and storms this Independence Day weekend in North Florida. We saw some isolated, but locally strong storms move from west to east on Friday afternoon, putting a damper on some residents’ fourth of July plans. For Saturday and Sunday, the trough lifts back to the north, bringing some more widespread storm activity both days. Unfortunately, this weekend doesn’t look like it will be the best for any outdoor activities. We’ll be tracking the storms for you all weekend long at the WRUF Weather Center. As always, you can track any storms that form live on our interactive radar, or follow us on twitter @WRUFWeather for downpour alerts in Alachua County. That way, you’ll know just when rain is headed your way, and when you need to take cover indoors from heavy rain, damaging winds, or lightning.

 

Even deeper moisture will move into the area by Monday, pushing rain chances up even further for our first Monday of July. By Tuesday or Wednesday, however, a ridge of high pressure starts to set up in the gulf. Depending on where the center of the ridge forms, we may have a chance to dry out a bit by the middle of the week. We’ll be monitoring that for you here at WRUF Weather as we move into the weekend.

 

Outside of rain, of course it will be hot. Heat indices approach 100 in many locations Saturday and Sunday. By now, we don’t have to remind North Floridians to take precautions from the heat, including drinking plenty of fluids, taking frequent breaks in the shade, and wearing light-colored, loose-fitting clothing. Heat indices will climb into the middle of the week, due to the aforementioned drying trend.

 

 

 

 

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment