• 3:30pm – penny size hail reported in Fort McCoy (Marion County)
• 4:00pm -  the sheriffs office received reports of numerous trees down in the Ocala area (Marion County)
• 4:05pm – a tree fell on two cars kiling a man in one of the cars near Ocala
• 5:00pm – 0.5 to 0.75 inch diameter hail reported near Wacahoota (Alachua County)
• 6:55pm – trees and power lines blocking state route 100 at SE 81st street in Theressa (Bradford County)

Raw footage of hail on SW side of #Gainesville from earlier today. If you have pics, please tweet them to us. youtu.be/yiU_8UQNf_c

— WRUF Weather (UF) (@WRUFWeather) May 20, 2013

Monday’s storms were also very slow-moving and dumped significant amounts of rain in a short amount of time.  2.90″ was reported at the Ocala Water Treatment Plant in just two hours.  Captured at 7pm on Monday, Gator Doppler had estimated that close to five inches of rain might have fallen in southern parts of Alachua County.

It’s beginning to look and feel a lot like summer around North-Central Florida.  Temperatures are climbing, the humidity is starting to become noticeable, and those pesky afternoon downpours will become almost routine by the end of this upcoming work week.  Sea breeze interactions already kicked off a few storms over the weekend, but slightly larger scale weather systems are forecast to aid in the development of stronger thunderstorms at times in the coming days, the first of which likely arriving this afternoon. WRUF Weather will keep you updated on Twitter, Facebook, TV, and on radio all week long with the latest on when and where the storms are most-likely to hit.

the bottom line

MONDAY:  Storms are likely to fire early in the afternoon near US HWY 301, then march west.  Damaging wind and small hail is possible with the stronger cells, especially as they move west of I-75 and near the Nature Coast by early evening.  An upper-level disturbance drifting in from the northeast will be the enhancing mechanism.

TUESDAY:  North-Central Florida will lie in between larger scale weather systems, but sufficient moisture and instability will still likely be present to produce spotty sea breeze-driven showers and thunderstorms for inland locations.

WEDNESDAY:  An upper-level trough of low pressure is forecast to form near the Atlantic coast, likely spiraling in some deeper tropical moisture.  This is forecast to lead to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms, likely impacting most areas with locally heavy rain at times.

THURSDAY:  Stronger upper-level winds are expected to push Wednesday’s deeper moisture out to sea, leaving most areas dry on Thursday.

FRIDAY:  A weak cold front sliding in from the north could enhance thunderstorm potential again by afternoon.  It is a bit too soon for specifics on timing and location of Friday’s rain chances.

WHEN:  Today 4pm to Midnight
WHERE:  Highest chances near the I-10 corridor and along or east of I-75
THREATS:  Wind damage, large hail, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning
DISCUSSION:  Sea breeze interactions produced wind damage in a few spots yesterday, and we think there is a more widespread threat for that this evening.  Sea breeze storms would likely weaken after sunset.  However, a disturbance moving south out of Georgia could bring another round of strong activity in that would last well after sunset.  Any cell or line of cells moving almost due south would pose an enhanced wind damage threat.

Follow us on Twitter @WRUFWeather for urgent updates, or watch WRUF-TV6 for live coverage when warranted.

As of 10am this morning, the National Weather Service reported that 4.10 inches of rain had fallen over the previous 24 hours, which is more water than several local creeks and streams can handle.  Additional heavy rain is forecast in Bradford County overnight which has prompted a Flood Watch through Saturday morning.  The heaviest of the rain with this weather system has fallen along the First Coast, where more than nine inches has been reported in Saint Augustine.  The following list will be updated as reports come in:

• St. Augustine: 9.66″ (as of 2pm)
• Palm Coast: 5.25″ (as of 10am)
• Starke: 4.11″ (as of 10am)
• Gainesville Regional Airport: 2.69″ (as of 10am)
• High Springs:  2.05″ (as of 10am)
• Ocala:  0.91″ (as of 10am)

The area of low pressure responsible for the flooding has stalled just off-shore of Melbourne, Florida and is expected to gradually weaken by Saturday.  Until then, though, copious amounts of moisture will continue to be funneled into North-Central Florida with periods of tropical-like downpours likely through Saturday morning.

The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch until Saturday morning for Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Putnam and Union counties.  Heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches has already fallen in some areas of North-Central Florida this week, and additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible between now and Saturday morning.  Urban street flooding is possible in the advised area, and local streams and creeks may flood low-lying areas as well following some of the heavier downpours.

This all changes Monday as the winds shift to the south and pull in some deeper moisture out of both the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic.  At the same time, a disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere will be moving into The Southeast, providing more support for organized showers and thunderstorms.  Later in the week, a stronger area of low pressure is forecast to stall over the Central U.S., and the southwest flow around this feature will pull even deeper amounts of moisture across the Sunshine State.  The result will be limited sunshine and much higher chances for afternoon thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday.  A temporary decrease in the rain chances is expected Thursday, followed by possibly one more round of active weather on Friday when a cold front approaches.  There is still some question as to exactly when this front will pass, but cooler and drier weather is in the forecast over the coming weekend.

THE BOTTOM LINE

• Monday:  Showers or thunderstorms are possible at any time, but most likely in the afternoon.  Some of the storms could be strong, especially in Marion or Putnam Counties and points south.
• Tuesday:  Mainly late-afternoon thunderstorms are expected for interior sections, with likely an extended period of sunshine in the morning and resulting warmer temperatures.
• Wednesday:  A disturbance moving in off the Gulf of Mexico will likely trigger widespread rain and some thunder, possibly arriving as early as the morning hours.  Temperatures are forecast to be cooler because of the clouds and rain.
• Thursday:  Rain chances diminish, as much of North-Central Florida will be in between weather systems.  However, spotty thunderstorms will still be possible in the afternoon hours.
• Friday:  A cold front and developing area of low pressure off the Atlantic Coast are expected to trigger one final round of rain and thunder, moving out and making way for a drier and cooler weekend.

THIS EVENING:

OVERNIGHT:  An unusually strong cold front for this time of year will move through North-Central Florida around midnight.  A brief shower or thunderstorm is possible when the boundary arrives, followed by a dramatic drop in temperature.  After a mild evening with temperatures in the 70s, the mercury will plummet to the upper 50s by mid-morning Saturday.  Winds will also shift to the north and be sustained around 10 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY:  A post-frontal band of rain will move across most of North-Central Florida during the afternoon hours, halting any chance of a warm up.  Daytime temperatures will likely hold in the upper 50s or lower 60s, and when combined with the north breeze, it could feel even colder.  The record low maximum for April 20th (meaning the coldest high temperature ever recorded on this date) is 62.  The projected high Saturday will likely occur just after midnight and be near 70, but afternoon temperatures (when the high is usually recorded) will be near or below this record.

April in Florida usually delivers plenty of sun and daytime highs in the 80′s, both conditions we’ve had plenty of this week.  A cold front will bring an abrupt end to this trend Saturday as daytime temperatures drop nearly twenty degrees and skies turn unsettled.  The mercury will likely be the only thing diving Saturday, as pool and beach-goers are strongly urged to make alternative plans for the first half of the weekend.

THE BOTTOM LINE

• Friday:  Warm, breezy, with sea breeze t-storms along and east of US HWY 301
• Saturday:  Unusually cool with periods of rain likely
• Sunday:  Warmer because of more sun, but still breezy and below normal

THE SET UP

The front will begin to make its presence known on Friday as winds increase out of the south, at times gusting to 25 mph.  This will transport warmer and more humid air into North-Central Florida as daytime highs likely reach the upper 80′s.  The added moisture could spark a brief shower or thunderstorm along the sea breezes as they slowly march inland late in the day, but most areas will stay dry Friday.

Periods of rain are much more likely on Saturday as the cold front moves through in the morning hours.  Most of the rain will fall behind the front Saturday afternoon, ensuring temperatures stay in the 60s for most of the day with a stiff north breeze.  The air will be more stable behind the front so strong thunderstorms are not expected.   However, a few claps of thunder and brief periods of heavy rain will be possible in a few spots.  Rainfall will not be particularly heavy and the system will be moving through at a steady pace, likely keeping rainfall accumulations under an inch in most areas.

The front clears the region on Sunday, but a wave of low pressure is forecast to develop along the front just offshore of the Space Coast (near Melbourne) by Sunday evening.  Drier air is forecast to keep most of the rain to the east of North-Central Florida, but gusty winds off the Atlantic might occasionally push showers as far inland as I-75 at times.