Florida’s Third-Down Struggles Reach Historic Lows
Third downs can make or break a drive. For Florida, they’ve been a nightmare.
The Gators’ offense has been underwhelming this season, but when it comes to the biggest moments, it’s been disastrous. Through the first month of the season, Florida is posting its worst third-down conversion rate since the NCAA began tracking the statistic in 2005.
Most notably, the Gators converted just 1-of-13 third downs in their most recent loss to Miami, a glaring issue as they prepare for a matchup with Texas on Saturday.
“Yeah, the numbers are a little out of whack,” UF coach Billy Napier said. “You’d like to play a few more under seven [yards], if that makes sense. Once you get to seven-plus, the analytics are against you. We’re definitely on the higher end, and we’ve had a couple of penalties in some of these situations where we go from two to seven.”
Flags have played a role, but another problem has been Florida’s reluctance to establish the run. Running back Jaden Baugh had only 10 carries in Florida’s loss to LSU and just 12 against Miami.
The clip is jarring, considering Baugh is averaging 5.9 yards per carry. He’s already notched nine runs of 10+ yards this season, and his ability to generate chunk plays on early downs could ease the pressure on third down and make Napier’s offense less predictable.
“Keeping third downs manageable is important, and once you’re on the plus side of the field, you benefit from a two-down approach on occasion,” Napier said. “Any football team, I don’t care who you are, you don’t want to be living in long-yardage situations.”
Even on some third-and-long, the offense is expected to convert. But in situations where Florida has faced third-and-9 or longer this season, the Gators are just 1 of 19.
“You just think in your head at some point you accidentally convert a couple of them,” college football analyst Josh Pate said about Florida during his show on Tuesday. “You’ve got good athletes — at some point you just accidentally make a play a couple of times.”
Heading into Saturday, there’s no margin for error. Texas ranks No. 4 nationally in total defense and is holding opponents to a 27% third-down conversion rate. Florida’s mark of 30.9% (No. 122 in FBS) isn’t going to cut it against the No. 9 Longhorns if the Gators hope to pull off an upset.
The last time Florida struggled remotely this much on third down was 2017 — the year head coach Jim McElwain was fired – when the Gators converted just 32.5% (No. 117 in FBS) of third downs. If the Gators can’t fix the problem soon, this season could be headed down a similar path.
Category: College Football, Gators Football, SEC
