Third Time’s the Charm: How Often Teams Beat a Rival Three Times in a Season

Is the third time the charm?

That’s the question for top-seeded Florida basketball, which will face No. 9 Kentucky in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament on Friday, setting up the third meeting between the two teams this season. After defeating Missouri in Thursday’s matchup, Kentucky advanced to the next round of the tournament, setting the stage for another showdown with the Gators.

After winning both regular-season matchups, the Gators now have the rare chance to win three games against Kentucky in a single campaign. For Florida, the game represents more than just another win but an opportunity to continue its dominance and build momentum as the SEC Tournament continues and the NCAA Tournament looms. On the other hand, Kentucky enters this matchup hoping to avoid a sweep and hungry to shift the narrative against a Florida squad that has already proven its strength as a national championship contender. 

Both of the regular-season matchups between Florida and Kentucky support that notion, anyway, with the Gators commanding the court both offensively and defensively. Although Florida dominated each game early, the key moments came late, with its execution and defensive pressure ultimately making the difference in a pair of single-digit victories — Florida’s only two games in which it won by fewer than 10 since its loss to Auburn in January. Kentucky has shown it is a second-half team, closing the gap late in both games. But if Kentucky wants to prove itself as a true NCAA Tournament dark horse, it’ll need to capitalize on one of its late pushes to drown the Gators.

So the question still lingers: Can Florida secure a third, dominance-insuring, win? Doing so would mark a rare accomplishment, especially against a conference rival like Kentucky. In the past decade, opportunities for the Gators to beat the same opponent three times in a single season have been limited, but Florida has found a way to win all three games against two different opponents. The Gators beat Vanderbilt three times in the 2020-2021 crowd-less season and against — guess who — Kentucky in 2014. The last time the Gators faced Kentucky three times in a season was during the subsequent year, though, and they lost all three games.

Thus, it’s possible to win three times against an opponent in a season, but is it likely in such a high-stakes game? Although the last meeting between the two teams was only a week ago, the Wildcats have made adjustments and built some momentum, winning two games in the SEC Tournament for the opportunity to even face Florida. 

And Kentucky may have a secret to beating the Gators and that lies with Denzel Aberdeen. Before transferring to Kentucky, Aberdeen spent his first three years with Florida, aiding the Gators in their national title run last season. Despite his individual success this season, scoring 19 points in their first meeting against the Gators and 15 points in the last while averaging 13, his personal gain hasn’t translated to team success. It would be quite the story that tide to turn in the postseason.

For Florida, a third victory would not only advance it further in the SEC Tournament, but it could also provide momentum heading deeper into postseason play. Success against Kentucky would reinforce the Gators’ confidence and strengthen their case to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

So is the third time truly the charm?

The answers will unfold when the two teams meet again on the court Friday.

Category: Basketball, Gators Men's Basketball