Breaking Down Spread: Florida Favored for Fifth Consecutive Week
After a blowout win against then-ranked No. 4 Ole Miss that seemed to shock everyone, but Vegas and Gators fans, the No. 8 Gators are ready to take on No. 25 Missouri at Memorial Stadium.
Florida (4-0, 2-0 SEC) is a 5.5-point favorite on the road against the Tigers (3-1, 0-1) in the game that airs starting at 12:30 p.m. on WRUF 98.1-FM/850-AM/103.7 HD and at 3:30 p.m. on ABC.
Point-spread betting is a wager on the margin of victory in a game, not simply on who wins. Oddsmakers assign the favorite a negative number, in this case minus-5.5 for Florida and the underdog a matching positive number, plus-5.5 for Mizzou. A bet on the favorite only pays out if that team wins by more than the spread.
Florida’s edge is characterized by their offense under coordinator Buster Faulkner, headlined by Heisman Trophy hopeful Jadan Baugh. The running back had 29 carries for 142 yards and three touchdowns against Ole Miss to join Emmitt Smith and Fred Taylor as the third Gator back with 100-plus rushing yards in five straight games.
But the Florida rushing game is not a one-man show. Sophomore running back Duke Clark got in on the action last Saturday in The Swamp, taking 12 carries for 126 yards and a touchdown. The two-headed monster carried the torch for a Gators run game that accounted for 303 yards and six touchdowns.
To have an edge on Florida, Mizzou will have to outscore and/or stop the offense with their ‘Death Row Defense’. Neither option is looking promising. The Tigers could not breach 24 points in their loss against Mississippi State last week. Plus, Mizzou allowed two touchdowns per game in its three unranked matchups leading up to Week 4.
The only advantage Mizzou seems to have is the home field. Vegas typically assigns the home field as a 2-to-3 point advantage. Add that to the 5.5 spread for Florida and it seems the oddsmakers think the Gators are about 7.5 to 8.5 points better than the Tigers.
A few other factors that might influence the spread are the emotions of both teams. Mizzou is reeling from a close loss against Mississippi State which should fuel them for this game. On the other hand, Florida is riding the high of a major upset win against Ole Miss. The Gators might be on an emotional hangover similar to Ole Miss coming off a win against LSU, which might be costing the Gators points in the spread.
And, even though Florida’s offense is characterized by its run game, star receivers Vernell Brown III and Bailey Stockton are listed as questionable heading into the game.
Despite the loss of points in the spread for the Gators, Vegas is still predicting a one-score win.
While Florida will try to stay undefeated this week, fans and sports bettors alike will see if Vegas can keep its prediction streak alive too.
Category: College Football, Feature Sports News, Gator Sports, Sports Betting
