Florida Soccer’s SEC Tournament Scenarios for Georgia Finale

Win and in. Draw and in. Lose and start doing math. 

Florida (6-6-4, 2-4-3 SEC) hosts Georgia (6-5-5, 3-3-3 SEC) at 1 p.m. Sunday at Donald R. Dizney Stadium in the regular-season finale. The Gators enter tied with LSU for 11th in the conference standings with nine points. The top 12 teams advance to the tournament, which runs Nov. 8-15 in Pensacola. 

Four teams are chasing the final two spots: LSU (9 points), Florida (9), Missouri (7) and Tennessee (6). Georgia has already clinched a berth. 

All three matches that decide the race kick off at 1 p.m. Sunday: Georgia at Florida, LSU at Missouri and Oklahoma at Tennessee.

“To be able to have this position at this point in the season where you control your own fate,” Florida coach Nick Zimmerman said. “What an opportunity.”

A win gives Florida 12 points, a total neither Missouri or Tennessee can reach. 

A draw puts Florida at 10 points, one more than Tennessee can reach. Missouri can match that total only by beating LSU. In that case, Florida and Missouri would finish with 10 points, ahead of LSU and Tennessee, and both would advance. 

A loss to Georgia, a Missouri win over LSU and a Tennessee draw or loss to Oklahoma would eliminate Florida. Missouri would jump to 10 points and clinch a spot. Florida and LSU would finish tied at nine points for the last spot. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head results, and LSU won the teams’ only meeting this season, 2-1 on Oct. 2 at Dizney Stadium.

Florida can lose and still advance in three ways.

First, LSU wins or draws at Missouri, and Tennessee does not win. LSU takes one spot with 10 points (a draw) or 12 (a win). Florida finishes at nine, ahead of Missouri and Tennessee, and claims the 12th spot.

Second, LSU wins or draws, and Tennessee beats Oklahoma. Florida and Tennessee would finish tied at nine points for 12th. The teams did not play this season, so the tie goes to points earned against common opponents.

Florida earned six points against the eight SEC teams both programs played (the common opponents used for the tiebreaker): a win over Alabama and draws with Mississippi State, Texas and Auburn. Tennessee earned five points against the same group: a win over LSU and draws with Mississippi State and Texas. Florida would advance.

Third, Missouri beats LSU, and Tennessee beats Oklahoma. Missouri would clinch with 10 points, and LSU, Florida and Tennessee would be tied at nine points for the last spot.

The three teams did not all play one another, and none of them beat both of the others. The tie would therefore go to results against common opponents. The four teams all three played are South Carolina, Mississippi State, Texas and Arkansas.

All three teams earned two points against that group, so the next tiebreaker would come down to goal differential after Sunday’s matches.

Florida will play without senior forward Lena Bailey. She will sit out Sunday after receiving a red card in the 88th minute of the Gators’ 1-1 draw with No. 25 Auburn on Oct. 22. Bailey scored the winning goal with 93 seconds left in Florida’s 1-0 win over then-No. 5 Alabama on Oct. 8, earning SEC Offensive Player of the Week honors.

For Florida, the simplest path runs through Dizney Stadium. Avoid a loss to Georgia, and the Gators can ignore the scores from Columbia and Knoxville.

“We never really talk about results…But Monday, we were just very clear with, ‘This is the reality of it.’” Zimmerman said. “You win, you get a result, then your season continues. If you don’t, then you need other things to happen.”

Category: Gator Sports, Gators Soccer