WRUF Analysis: No Statistical Home-Field Edge for Gators in FSU Rivalry
On third-and-10 in the fourth quarter of a top-10 showdown between the third-ranked Florida State Seminoles and the seventh-ranked Florida Gators in 1993, the home team hoped the deafening noise of more than 85,000 fans in “The Swamp” could help stop the FSU drive led by eventual Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Charlie Ward.
Trailing 27-21, Ward took the snap and faked a handoff to running back Warrick Dunn, who caught the ball for a game-clinching touchdown to earn a berth to the 1993 National Championship Game.
Despite the efforts from the fans in attendance that year, and in the years to follow, a WRUF statistical analysis of 60 years’ worth of data shows there is no meaningful link between playing at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium and beating FSU, which returns to Gainesville on Saturday for the season finale. WRUF also found no statistical link between playing at home and total points scored or the Gators’ win margin.
Former Florida linebacker James Bates, who played for the Gators from 1993 to 1996, watched his team lose the close contest in his redshirt freshman season. He played Florida State six times, with UF going 2-3-1. His teams went 1-1 against FSU in Gainesville during his tenure.
“It was so loud, and Charlie Ward hit Warrick Dunn on a wheel route for a first down (and an eventual touchdown) and it went from the loudest I’ve ever heard The Swamp to the quietest I’ve ever heard The Swamp,” Bates said. “… On that play, on what was the loudest play I was ever a part of there at the house of college football, it (the crowd noise) did not work there, but you’d like to think that it works.”
While the Gators didn’t beat the Seminoles that day, Florida has won 60% of its matchups against Florida State in Gainesville, where it holds FSU to an average of about 18 points at home and about 24 points on the road
Florida has a slightly better record at home against FSU, but the Gators average about 23 points in both Gainesville and in Tallahassee, data show.
FSU’s preparation for playing in Gainesville this Saturday will likely change from previous games this season in preparing for the noise.
“They know it’s going to be probably the noisiest environment that they’ll play in all year,” Bates said.
But not only do the Gators not have a statistical home-field advantage against the Seminoles, Florida has lost five of its last seven meetings to FSU in Gainesville. In all five of those losses, Florida has lost by more than a touchdown in each, with four of them being by double digits.
That doesn’t mean players and coaches don’t feed off the fans.
Junior defensive back Bryce Thornton has played FSU once in Gainesville in 2023, when they lost 24-15.
“With the crowd behind us, I feel it’s so much of an advantage,” Thornton said. “I feel like just because of how much they pour in and how much the fans actually care about Florida football. Just being there and them being there for us cheering, I feel like it helps us a lot.”
Thornton said playing a role in the rivalry is special for him, having watched Florida football and the rivalry go back and forth for decades.
Florida State won more in the 1990s, but lost when it mattered most —the 1996 National Championship. Florida dominated in the 2000s and FSU dominated in the 2010s.
Florida interim head coach Billy Gonzales, who enters his 11th meeting on the sidelines against FSU, has seen the ups and downs of the Florida football program. He is in his third stint at Florida and previously served as a wide receivers coach. Gonzales has only lost to Florida State once.
He said he thinks the fans give them an advantage in any game they play in, despite what the data shows.
“It’s the energy, the passion, the fans we have, the Gator Nation is second to none.” Gonzales said. “Our fans are unbelievable, so we use them to our advantage when we have a team coming in, especially a rival.”
Category: Gator Sports, Gators Football
