Florida Football Enters Week 8 as Favorite

After a disappointing showing against No. 5 Texas A&M, Florida faces Mississippi State at 4:15 p.m. Saturday for Homecoming, the first time since Week 2 the Gators will not play a ranked opponent, a streak of four straight top-10 matchups.

Florida (2-4, 1-2 SEC) welcomes a MSU team that is fresh off the bye week following its 31-9 defeat to Texas A&M. The Bulldogs are 4-2, with both losses coming in conference play, so you can count Florida getting MSU’s best effort as it tries to climb out of an 0-2 start in the SEC.

While they have dropped their last two games, the Bulldogs are a much-improved team in year two under coach Jeff Lebby. In 2024, MSU went 2-10 with zero SEC wins, so the strong start to the 2025 campaign has Florida’s attention.

“They’ve been in some really tough SEC games the last couple of weeks against Tennessee and A&M, and I think they’re tough, they play hard and I respect what I see on the tape,” Gators coach Billy Napier said. ” (Blake) Shapen is a vet quarterback, two really good backs and speed at receiver, a tight end that’s a mismatch player, and then defensively just a lot of height, length, explosive, athletic players at first, second and third level here, and that translates to the kicking game as well. Always a challenge when they’ve got an extra week to prepare for you.”

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Since the turn of the century, UF has beaten Mississippi State six of the last eight meetings, including a 45-28 win a year ago in Starkville. The Gators control the all-time series 35-19-2 and will get the Bulldogs at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium for the first time since 2010.

Florida opened as a 9.5-point favorite, according to Hard Rock Bet, before closing as a 10.5-point favorite Sunday night. As of Monday,  the odds are back down to the original -9.5-point mark.

One of the early concerns for Napier and the Gators is Shapen, who transferred from Baylor to Mississippi State last season, when he played in four games, threw for 974 yards and had an eight-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio before suffering a fractured right scapula against Florida that cost him the rest of the year.

This season, Shapen has thrown for 1,201 yards, completing 67.1% of his passes, with a nine-to-four touchdown-to-interception ratio. MSU wants to be able to rely on its backs to get the ground game going, so Shapen can air the ball  to his playmakers. He is averaging 12.01 yards a completion (56th in FBS).

“I do think the backs complement what they’re trying to do there. They’ve had a healthy running game, and then they’ve got some unique matchup players in the slot and outside. So, continuity in the system, he’s benefiting from that,” Napier said. “He’s a scrappy player; he’s been very effective in his career. So there’ll be things that come with him that we’ll have to be prepared for. He can make some plays with his feet as well. So he’s off to a good start.”

Category: College Football, Feature Sports News, Gators Football, SEC