It is year four of the Billy Napier era, and to be frank, not much to show record-wise. Yes, Florida is coming off its best season since 2020, going 8-5 with their first bowl game win in five years. But Napier is 19-19 overall with one winning season, so what will this Gators team show in 2025?
There is no secret that Florida has one of the toughest schedules in college football this season. According to ESPN Analytics, the Gators enter 2025 with the hardest schedule, and sixth-hardest according to PFF.
The Toughest & Easiest College Football Power 5 Schedules in 2023 per @PFF_College pic.twitter.com/UAfQVh2whP
— On3 (@On3sports) July 25, 2023
The schedule is littered with landmines – from back-to-back road trips at LSU and Miami to close September, to opening October with Texas at home and then a visit to College Station to face Texas A&M. November does not get any easier with three straight road games (*Nov. 1 against Georgia in Jacksonville) before closing out the regular season with rivalry games against Tennessee and Florida State.
So, what are realistic expectations to have for this Gators team? On one hand, this will be the most talented Florida team in quite some time and Napier believes that the CFP is obtainable with this group.
“We absolutely have aspirations to be a playoff team. That’s the intention of coming here, is to win championships,” Napier said on Tuesday. “Now, what do we know about that? It’s about the work we do. It’s about today. Okay. It’s not about yesterday or tomorrow. It’s about today. A good today leads to a good week, leads to a good month, leads to a good season, and you look up and count them up at the end of the year.”
A Defining September
While it might be an outlandish take to say the month of September will define Florida’s season, it is obvious that getting off to the right foot will help guide the rest of the way for Florida, which is ranked No. 17 in the preseason coaches poll released Monday. Last season, the Gators started 1-2, falling to 4-4 before ascending and saving their season. With all the momentum built from the end of the year carried into the offseason, the last thing the Gators want is to fall flat out of the gate.
After two manageable home games against LIU and USF, the real challenge begins with a week 3 clash at LSU. The Tigers come in as an upper-echelon SEC team looking to break through to the CFP. LSU head coach Brian Kelly finds himself in a similar situation to Napier, where the wins need to start coming soon.
Florida snapped a five-game losing streak against the Tigers last year. Making it the first real signature win during the Napier era, but now they head to Death Valley looking for their first win there since 2016. It will be a rematch between two of the best QBs in the SEC – DJ Lagway and Garrett Nussmeier, who were both named to the Maxwell Award watch list last week.
FLORIDA TAKES IT TO THE HOUSE! THEY’RE IN FIRM CONTROL OF LSU RIGHT NOW
— College Football Report (@CFBRep) November 16, 2024
Following that Saturday night showdown, the Gators turn the page to Miami, where they will try to avenge a brutal 41-17 beatdown at the hands of the Hurricanes in last season’s opener. Florida feels like the better team in this one, but Miami replaces NFL first-overall pick Cam Ward with ex-UGA QB Carson Beck.
Beck started two seasons at Georgia, where he was 24-3 as a starter, threw for 7,426 yards in that span with 52 touchdowns, and had a 2-0 record against Florida. But the Hurricanes lost most of their offensive weapons from last year and still have question marks on defense.
At worst, Florida needs to go 1-1 during that span to stay afloat with what else is to come the rest of the way.
A Texas-Sized October
Once Florida gets through the first hurdle of the season, it is on to Texas and Texas A&M – two teams that dominated Florida in 2024.
The Longhorns make their long-awaited arrival back to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Texas has not played in Gainesville since they beat Florida 26-0 on Dec. 7, 1940. Now the Gators get another crack at Texas, still seeking their first ever win against them.
But what a welcome to the SEC moment it will be for first-year starting QB Arch Manning and company, who begin conference play in one of, if not the most, hostile places to play.
A week later, Florida heads back to College Station for a Week 7 clash against Texas A&M. The Gators know Kyle Field well, as this will be their fourth trip since the Aggies joined the conference back in 2012. Florida is 2-1 in that span, and would love to get some payback after a 33-20 defeat last year.
To do so, they will need to stop the Aggies’ run game. Texas A&M rushed for 310 yards in Gainesville, with running back Le’Veon Moss accounting for 178 of them. Three interceptions doomed Florida, with Lagway throwing two of them.
The best shot of the night. Kyle Field literally shaking the cameras pic.twitter.com/kR6L5XLc8n
— Garrett Gross (@Garrett_66) October 29, 2024
Florida then hosts Mississippi State before a much-needed bye week to close out October.
The November stretch run
Since UGA head coach Kirby Smart took over back in 2016, Georgia has controlled the “World’s Largest Cocktail Party”. Smart and the Bulldogs are 6-2 against Florida, but things felt different in Jacksonville last year. Florida controlled the game early, leading 10-3 in the second quarter. But then disaster struck when Lagway took off to run and was knocked out of the game with a left hamstring injury.
Despite carrying a 13-6 lead at halftime, the Gators’ valiant efforts were cut short, as Georgia outscored Florida 28-7 in the second half to win its fourth straight meeting. But this year, many believe Florida has enough to finally tame the Bulldogs and get Napier his first win in this rivalry.
The Bulldogs make it a tie game after the Nate Frazier touchdown
✅ Anytime TD Scorer (+150)
(via @GeorgiaFootball)pic.twitter.com/tSWalWRVXk
— ESPN BET (@ESPNBET) November 2, 2024
A good place to start would be playing better defense. Even though they forced three turnovers, they still allowed 34 points, 455 total yards, 339 through the air, and 146 on the ground. Under Napier, Florida has been outscored 119 to 60, with an average margin of defeat of 19.67 points.
After Jacksonville, Florida, finishes the away part of the schedule at Kentucky and Ole Miss in that order. Florida has struggled in Lexington, KY, having not won a game there since 2017. Before that, its last road win against the Wilcats was in 1984.
The Gators head back to Oxford, MS, for the first time since 2020, but will need to fend off an Ole Miss group looking to get revenge for last year’s loss.
Florida finished the season strong winning 4 straight to close out the year including a huge win vs #9 Ole Miss 24-17. pic.twitter.com/T1Fb3ropfv
— College Football Live (@CollegeFBonX) March 2, 2025
The regular season wraps up with a two-game home stand against Tennessee and Florida State. The Volunteers have not won in Gainesville since 2003, but will get another crack at it on Nov. 22 with a new QB at the helm, Joey Aguilar, who transferred from UCLA this offseason.
From nearly undefeated to rock bottom, the Seminoles will try to rebound this 2025 season after a dreadful 2-10 season. FSU has won three of the last five meetings at the Swamp, but Florida should be able to handle a rebuilding Seminoles roster.
Where They’ll Finish
After breaking everything down, this is a team that is more than capable of putting everything together this year. The biggest question that will impact Florida this year will be the health of Lagway in 2025. If their star QB can stay healthy, with all the weapons around him, the Gators will not have any problems putting points on the board. More concerns lie with a defensive unit that showed promise at the end of 2024.
Final record prediction: 9-3
Losses at LSU, Texas A&M, and Georgia seem the most likely. Playing at Death Valley to open SEC play, with question marks at defensive back and facing LSU’s offense, will bring problems. Going to College Station for an afternoon/night game a week after playing Texas screams trap game.
Until Florida can prove it has the firepower to break down Georgia’s defense, the nod goes to Smart’s Bulldogs.
Even with three losses, wins against Miami, Texas, Ole Miss, and Tennessee should be enough to have a legitimate argument for getting in the playoff.
Florida Gators Football Press Conference 8-04-2025 https://t.co/7shhW0zYLS
— Florida Gators Football (@GatorsFB) August 4, 2025