SEC Tournament Predictions: How Florida Wins Second Straight
As the SEC postseason men’s basketball comes around, all eyes are on the reigning national and SEC champion Florida Gators.
After opening the season looking nothing like the championship team from a year before, Florida has found the consistency it lacked. Although it stumbled early, dropping games to teams like TCU that they were expected to win comfortably, the Gators are the hottest team in the country with an 11-game win streak.
Florida closed the regular season with an 84-77 victory at Kentucky last Saturday. Since the calendar flipped to 2026, the Gators have been beaten only twice, finishing 25-6 to secure their first regular-season Southeastern Conference title since 2014.
That does not mean Florida enters Nashville, Tenn., this week without serious challengers at the SEC tournament. Arkansas has one of the best young back courts in the country. Alabama surged late, winning nine of its final 10 regular-season games. Vanderbilt stayed in the mix after its unbeaten start gave way to a more balanced finish.
Florida carries the most momentum in the conference. The Gators suddenly look like a team capable of making another deep March run, and if they avoid an early stumble in the conference tournament, a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament is firmly in reach Sunday.
A few months ago, that kind of ceiling felt hard to imagine for Florida. Now, the question is will the Gators add another 11 wins in route to back-to-back SEC and national championships.
Round 1
No. 9 Kentucky and No. 10 Texas have the talent to make some noise in the tournament. Although it is unlikely either team is able to win five games in a row, they could use some momentum heading into the NCAA tournament.
Texas is a projected 10 seed according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi bracketology. Junior Dailyn Swain, a Xavier transfer, has been the heart of this squad, leading the team in points, rebounds, assists and steals per game. He is one of the most efficient rim finishers in the country, utilizing his 6-foot-8 frame to get downhill against smaller guards. If Swain can consistently put up 25 points per game, and supporting cast members like Jordan Pope and Tramon Mark contribute, Texas could pull off some upsets. It plays No. 15 Ole Miss at 6 p.m. Wednesday.
Kentucky’s season has been nothing short of disappointing, starting the year projected to place second in the league. The Wildcats have been plagued with injuries, losing notable pieces in Pittsburg transfer Jaland Lowe and Arizona State transfer Jayden Quaintance for a majority of the season. Florida transfer Denzel Aberdeen and first-team All SEC honoree Otega Oweh have taken the load on offense, but an undersized and depleted front court have plagued the Wildcats. They play No. 16 LSU at 11:30 a.m. Wednesday.
Round 2
No. 5 Tennessee sees its first game in Round 2 on Friday. The Volunteers face the winner of No. 12 Auburn/No. 13 Mississippi State. With projected top-10 pick Nate Ament and Maryland transfer Jakobi Gillespie leading the Tennessee offense, the Volunteers should have a comfortable first-round win. After a frustrating end to the regular season in a home loss to Vanderbilt, the Volunteers have the defensive intensity under coach Rick Barnes to seek out some revenge.
Upset Predictions: After beating Ole Miss, Texas beats No. 7 seed Georgia. Kentucky gets the job done against No. 6 Missouri. The Tigers still should be a lock to make the NCAA Tournament with big Quad 1 wins against Florida, Tennessee and Vanderbilt, but losing its first game in Nashville will have the Tigers feeling a bit anxious on Selection Sunday.
Round 3
The reigning champion Gators make their debut in the quarterfinal Friday, along with SEC player of the year Darius Acuff Jr. and No. 3 Arkansas. These are the two most complete teams in the SEC, but the Gators beat the Razorbacks comfortably 111-77 less than a month ago.
After concerns with 3-point shooting (under 28% as a team heading into conference play), the Florida back court has finally found the bottom of the net. SEC sixth man of the year Urban Klavzar is shooting the 3 at a 40% rate, while Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland have provided more consistent offense. Between improved guard play and SEC defensive player of the year Rueben Chinyelu, second-team All SEC Thomas Haugh and third-team All SEC Alex Condon controlling the paint, Florida is a force that is going to take nearly perfect basketball for any SEC team to dethrone.
Tennessee gets the best of Vanderbilt in a rematch of its 86-82 loss. Vanderbilt guard Duke Miles has been struggling since coming back from injury and Tyler Tanner is locked down by Gillespie. This matchup has the opportunity to be one of the best of the tournament. Both teams pride themselves on transition offense through forced turnovers, but Barnes’ postseason experience shines.
Upset Predictions: Swain and Texas continue to roll against No. 2 Alabama. The Crimson Tide have relied on high-scoring efficiency all season due to lackluster defense. Labaron Philon and Aden Holloway are unable to get it going from 3, and the length of the Longhorn back court is too much to handle. Texas to the semifinals.
Round 4
Florida vs. Tennessee is another matchup that could turn heads. Tennessee’s defense is suffocating, but Florida has too many ways to score for one game plan to slow them down. If Condon gets taken away inside, Haugh takes over through driving from the perimeter. Focus on both of them, and Fland, Lee or Klavzar stretch the floor by knocking it down from range.
Texas’ run comes to an end against Arkansas. Acuff and Maleek Thomas are too much to handle and Hall-of-Fame coach John Calipari outplays the Longhorns.
Final
With the way Florida is playing, it is hard to imagine any SEC team takes them down. The Gators can beat teams in too many ways. Their only weakness this season has been 3-point shooting, but even when the Gators aren’t as efficient from deep, they still dominate the paint. Rebounding, transition points and points in the paint have been an advantage for Florida in the midst of its win streak, and the Gators show no signs of slowing down.
Category: College Basketball, Feature Sports News, Gators Men's Basketball, NCAA Tournament, SEC
