State of Play: How Florida’s NFL Teams Stack Up in 2025
Thirty two teams. Eighteen weeks. One goal: hoisting the Lombardi trophy in February.
This week sparks a new beginning for the NFL. Every team is 0-0. Thursday marks the start of the 2025-26 season.
All 32 teams play this week. For some, it’s just a game. But, to other teams, it’s a chance to generate new success.
Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts (1 p.m., CBS)
Sunday will be the fifth time the teams have squared off over the last 10 years. In the previous matchups, the Colts had the upperhand, winning four of the last five. Most recently, Indianapolis took down Miami 16-10 in a defensive battle in 2024.
The AFC East squad retained the majority of its roster from last season.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa under center has sparked the same question among the league: can he stay healthy?
Tagovailoa sustained three diagnosed concussions over the course of two seasons. Coaches, players and medical professionals have called for the QB’s retirement because of his extensive injury history. Despite the backlash, Tagovailoa has made it clear he is not stepping off the field.
When healthy, the Hawaiian QB is one of the most efficient in the league at the position. He led the NFL in completion percentage last season at 72.9%. In 2023, Tagovailoa’s only full season, he threw for 4,624 yards and 29 touchdowns.
His favorite target? All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill. The veteran has made several headlines in his 10-year career. When he was traded from the Kansas City Chiefs to the Dolphins, the NFL world was stunned. One of the greatest players in Chiefs history, and Super Bowl champion, went from the pinnacle of the league to a mediocre club.
Now, Hill is entering his fourth season in South Florida. He totaled more than 1,700 receiving yards in his first two years in aqua and orange. Last season was his weakest production-wise, but he still managed to put up 959 yards and six touchdowns. If the Dolphins want to win, they will have to feed Hill.
The host Colts opened as 1.5-point favorites. With Daniel Jones at the helm, Colts fans will be on the edge of their seats cheering for the veteran quarterback. Sitting behind Jones is former Florida standout Anthony Richardson. The third-year man will certainly have some comments if Jones does not perform Sunday. Colts coach Shane Steichen announced Jones as the teams’ starter just a few days prior to the last week of preseason. Jones signed with the team as a free agent in the offseason after spending six seasons in the ‘Big Apple’ with the New York Giants.
Jones has something to prove. He was the sixth-overall pick back in 2019 and put up career numbers in his rookie season. He threw for more than 3,000 yards and 24 touchdowns through the air. The rest of his career is a different story. He has been riddled with injuries: a 2020 hamstring injury, 2021 neck injury and a torn ACL and meniscus in Week 9 of the 2023 season.
Colts star Jonathan Taylor has similar experience in the injury department. The sixth-year running back is coming off his second Pro Bowl selection. Taylor has dealt with numerous ankle injuries, including a sprain in both 2022 and 2024 that kept him out of several games.
Heading into Week 2, Steichen and his staff will lean on Taylor and wide receiver Josh Downs against the Dolphins. Downs, selected in the third round of the 2023 draft, has seen an increase in production since his rookie year. He accounted for 107 of the Colts’ targets last season.
With the depleted Dolphins secondary, Jones may lean on Downs early. Miami will have Storm Duck and Jack Jones starting on the perimeter, with rookie Jason Marshall Jr. in the nickel position. After losing cornerback Kader Kohou to a partially torn ACL in training camp, the Colts should target Downs and Michael Pittman Jr. immediately.
The Pick
Riley: Dolphins 21, Colts 17
Dalton: Dolphins 24, Colts 17
Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1 p.m., FOX)
The first game of the coach Liam Coen era in Jacksonville pits the Jaguars against the Carolina Panthers, who are coming off another disappointing season in which they went 5-12. Will Coen be able to orchestrate an offensive attack that capitalizes on a Panthers defense that ranked last in both yards (404.5) and points allowed (31.4) per game last season?
Being able to ease the offense into the season with a matchup with the worst defense in football from last season is a blessing for the Jaguars. After back-to-back disappointing seasons from quarterback Trevor Lawrence, getting him on the same page as his receiving weapons will be important. From returning star Brian Thomas Jr., to the rookie sensation Travis Hunter and potential breakout Brenton Strange, Lawrence has the options around him to lead a successful offense.
When it comes to Hunter, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner is listed on the depth chart as a starting wide receiver, and also a second-string cornerback. His snap count on both sides of the ball will be something to monitor as the season goes along.
While the offense is due to take a step forward, the best Jacksonville teams of recent memory have been led by the defense. After being the worst defense against the pass last year, allowing 257.4 yards per game through the air, the Jaguars will hope they can begin to see improvements along the secondary.
The Panthers will be the perfect test to see if the pass defense has improved. Quarterback Bryce Young has question marks after being benched last season, and his receiving core has been depleted. Adam Thielen was traded to the Minnesota Vikings, while Jalen Coker was placed on injured reserve with a quad injury. The biggest threat is rookie Tetairoa McMillan out of Arizona. The 6-foot-4 receiver is a big play waiting to happen, and can provide problems for the secondary.
The biggest hope for improvement in the defense is along the front. The pass rush consisting of Travon Walker, Josh Hines-Allen and Arik Armstead has no excuses to not get to the quarterback. If these three are able to generate pressure, they can force Young into poor decisions. The third-year quarterback has 19 interceptions across 30 career games.
Getting the defense in order against the Panthers is vital, as three of the next four games for the Jaguars are against big-time passing teams. Week 2 pits them against Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals, Week 3 is C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans and Week 5 is Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. If the defense is not put together after this week, the Jaguars could quickly see their season fall apart.
The Pick
Riley: Jaguars 24, Panthers 14
Dalton: Jaguars 27, Panthers 24,
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons (1 p.m., FOX)
The only Florida team to play a divisional matchup in Week 1 is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They travel to Atlanta to take on the Falcons, the team they finished two games ahead of last season.
This is not the same Falcons team from last year. The most clear difference comes from starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. Last year the rookie appeared in five games, starting three of them at the end of the season. This will be different, with Penix getting the first-team reps during training camp. It will quickly become clear whether Penix will be able to help the Falcons take the leap to be contenders in the NFC.
The Falcons also sought to upgrade their biggest weakness during the offseason. They drafted two pass rushers in the first round, first Jalon Walker out of Georgia, and then they traded back into the first round to take James Pearce Jr. from Tennessee. The hope for the Falcons is that these pass rushers will help the defense take the next step.
The Buccaneers will quickly find out how good the Falcons pass rush is. Offensive lineman Tristan Wirfs will miss this game, which leaves the Bucs down a top lineman. The Falcons capitalizing on this weakness will play a big role in determining the outcome of the game.
Injuries play a role in the Buccaneers passing game as well. Chris Godwin Jr. will miss this game, meaning rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka is stepping into the spotlight in his first regular-season game. The talented Egbuka may make Godwin’s injury less noticeable, but Godwin has been a reliable weapon for quarterback Baker Mayfield for years now.
The Buccaneers sit as a 1.5-point favorite on ESPN Bet, and this game carries more stakes than your typical opener. If the two NFC South favorites end up tied at the end of the season, the head-to-head tiebreaker will come into play. That makes for potential fireworks at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
The Pick
Riley: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 21
Dalton: Buccaneers 24, Falcons 27
Category: NFL
