ESPN Analytics Paints Grim Outlook for Florida’s Season
Amid the Florida Gators’ struggles to win this season, ESPN Analytics rated the program’s remainder of the season a near draw between success and disaster.
As the Gators enter their first bye week of the season, ESPN projects that Florida will only win three or four games, with a 0.2% chance to make the College Football Playoff and a 0% chance to make the national championship game. To make matters even more bleak, the analytics predict that Florida has almost the same chance to lose out the rest of its schedule and finish 1-11 as it does to become bowl eligible.
It’s not difficult to see why the outlook is so discouraging for the Gators. Before the season, ESPN projected that Florida would win seven games. The Gators were given a 32.3% chance to make the College Football Playoff and a 4% chance to make the national championship game. High expectations came as they started this year as the No. 15 team in the country.
Coach Billy Napier’s team peaked at No. 13 by winning its first game against LIU 55-0, before going unranked after losing to unranked USF on a walk-off field goal. After two losses to No. 3 LSU and No. 4 Miami, the Gators sit at 1-3 for the first time since 1986.
The elephant in the room for the Gators’ struggles this year has been the offense led by coach Napier. While the defense has allowed only five touchdowns, the offense hasn’t produced enough. The Gators have scored only one touchdown in each of their last three games. Despite the offensive struggles, Napier insisted he will remain the play caller moving forward in his news conference Wednesday.
Quarterback DJ Lagway has struggled to produce a rhythm all season. After coming back from injuries he sustained in the offseason, Lagway has completed 83 of 123 passes for 690 total yards. While Lagway has had five drives that produced touchdowns, he has thrown six interceptions, including five in the loss against LSU.
To have a slight chance at making the College Football Playoff, Florida will need to win out the rest of its schedule to finish 9-3. The road is far from easy, as the Gators face six Top 25 opponents.
ESPN gives Florida a 0% chance of making such a miracle. Only time will tell if Florida can prove the analytics wrong, and it starts next Saturday against No. 10 Texas.
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