Florida’s Five Keys Against Mississippi State
For all the off-the-field noise surrounding the future of Gators coach Billy Napier, some might have forgotten that there is an actual game being played today. After all, it is Homecoming weekend at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, where the Florida Gators (2-4, 1-2 SEC) will host the Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-2, 0-2) at 4:15 p.m.
It is an important game for both teams, who are looking to get back into the win column. Florida has lost four of its last five games, but is a near double-digit favorite, while Miss. St. is a much-improved team in its second year under coach Jeff Lebby, but has not won an SEC game since it beat Arkansas 7-3 in October 2023. The Bulldogs are coming off a bye week and would love nothing more than to hand the Gators another loss this season.
“A Mississippi State team that keeps getting better every week,” Napier said during his Week 8 teleconference Wednesday. “A ton of respect for Coach Lebby and the job he’s doing there. They play hard. They play with poise and discipline. It’s a tough group and obviously good systems in all three parts of their team.”
Here are the biggest keys to success Saturday:
Need a fast start
Florida started the game strong a week ago, scoring 14 points in the first quarter and keeping a hostile Texas A&M crowd down was just what they needed. The issue is that the defense played its worst game of the year and also allowed 14 points in the opening frame. This season, Florida is 2-1 when scoring the game’s first touchdown, indicating that when ahead on the scoreboard, UF can compete in ball games.
Now, back at home in front of a 16th-straight sellout crowd, Florida needs another strong start to not only give the team confidence but keep this fanbase happy.
The last thing the Gators need is to allow the Bulldogs to land the first blow – whether that be scoring first or creating a turnover – anything to get this home crowd riled up even more than they already are. The last time as a home-favorite (against USF), the Gators’ poor start cost them the game and they cannot make the same mistake twice.
Handle the Bulldogs’ tempo
One of the biggest issues against USF was the pace of play of the Bulls’ offense. USF is No. 1 in college football at an average time between plays (21.3 seconds), and it showed in Week 2. On all of USF’s scoring drives, the fastball tempo offense caught the Gators’ defense out of sorts and cost them dearly.
Mississippi State is another one of those teams that likes to play fast – averaging 23 seconds per play (11th in FBS). While it is not the first, nor the last time Florida will see these types of offenses this season, it does not make stopping it any easier. Napier said it is an important part of this game and how his defense can respond to slowing down the pace of play, but he feels his team has done a good job preparing.
“It’s unique, it’s different, it’s tough to simulate,” Napier said. “I think you spend a lot of time on it throughout the offseason. And then I can tell you that, you know, the scout team has a critical job replicating the tempo, and you’ve got your methods to try to create that for the players, and they’ve done a good job this week.”
Secondary keep everything in front
A staple in Lebby-led offenses is pushing the ball down the field for chunk plays and putting pressure on opposing secondaries to stop it. Mississippi State is averaging 11.4 yards per completion, which slots them 73rd in the FBS, so nothing too overwhelming. But Florida’s defense is 113th in yards per completion (13.3 yards) and with a banged-up secondary, it could be trouble.
The best way to combat this is making sure there are no defensive breakdowns that could allow opposing receivers to run freely. Florida is already down multiple starters on the back end, including Sharif Denson, Aaron Gates and Dijon Johnson. The Gators could be down another key piece Saturday if Cormani McClain, who enters as questionable, is unable to go, leaving some exposure out there.
Mississippi State has a solid passing game that starts with senior quarterback Blake Shapen, who transferred from Baylor to Starkville a year ago. Shapen fractured his right scapula against the Gators in last year’s meeting, so he is looking to bounce back this season. He has thrown for 1,201 yards, completed 67.1% of his passes with a nine-to-four touchdown-to-interception ratio and has a plethora of weapons to work with.
Brenen Thompson and Georgia transfer Anthony Evans III are Shapen’s top targets. Thompson leads all the receivers with 378 yards, four touchdowns and is averaging 17.2 yards a reception. Evans III has the most receptions on the team with 31 for 364 yards and two touchdowns.
“The big thing is the run-after-catch ability. They do a good job of getting specific guys’ touches. The does a nice job of getting the drive started. They use their guys and then they win outside,” Napier said. “There’s big play ability. So, they got some speed. If you look at the documented times on these guys, they can go. It’s definitely going to be some slot matchups and when we do have to go one-on-one outside, but there will be some challenges out there as well.”
Run the ball
An area Florida can really take advantage of is Mississippi State’s run defense. The Bulldogs are allowing 182 yards on the ground a game (105th in FBS), which leaves the door open for running back Jadan Baugh, who needs to be a focal point in this one. Baugh has 94 carries for 461 yards (averaging 4.9 yards per carry) with three touchdowns. With Ja’Kobi Jackson still dealing with injury, Baugh needs to get at least 20 carries in this one.
O-Line Bounce Back
If Florida is going to have any chance of winning this game, the offensive line has to be better. A group that has underperformed all year looks to rebound after giving up three sacks and six tackles for loss. The Bulldogs struggle at getting after the quarterback, only averaging 1.4 sacks per game (98th in FBS). So as bad as Florida has been this season at keeping quarterback DJ Lagway clean in the pocket, this could be a game to get right in.
If they do their job, it will likely allow Florida to replicate its performance against Texas in this one. Lagway tossed for 298 yards, two touchdowns and was not sacked.
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Category: College Football, Feature Sports News, Gators Football, SEC
