CFP Scenarios With One Week Left in Regular Season
Rivalry weekend is here and each matchup has big implications for the College Football Playoff.
Let’s take a look at the teams that have likely clinched the postseason and teams fighting to finish the season in the top 12.
The Top 7
Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M remain undefeated heading into the final week of the regular season. The top three hasn’t changed since Week 9, which goes to show that these three programs have been the undisputed best teams in college football over the last month. Even with a loss in the final week of the season, each of these teams will likely have a first-round bye.
For Ohio State, its matchup against Michigan — known as “The Big Game” — has more meaning than securing a bye in the CFP. Ohio State has lost to Michigan the last four seasons, so it will look to regain the upper hand in this rivalry and enter the playoffs undefeated.
Georgia, Texas Tech, Oregon and Ole Miss round out the top 7 of the College Football Playoff rankings. Georgia and Texas Tech enter this weekend as double-digit favorites. Conference championship games await, but one of these two teams will likely secure a bye if they are both victorious this weekend. Both teams will be on the road, where Georgia faces No. 23 Georgia Tech on Friday, while Texas Tech plays Saturday against unranked West Virginia.
Oregon and Ole Miss are both in interesting situations. Ranking right outside the top four, both teams are still in play for first-round byes, but could potentially miss the CFP completely based on potential outcomes in other matchups. Oregon’s sole loss came at home against Indiana, 30-20, and Ole Miss came up short at Georgia, 43-35. With losses coming against top teams, dropping a game this week on the road shouldn’t remove either team from the playoff picture.
Oregon is 6.5-point favorites Saturday against Washington, while Ole Miss is 7.5-point favorites Friday against Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.
Current Teams in the Picture
Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Alabama, BYU and Miami round out the current top 12 teams.
Oklahoma’s playoff hopes have been at stake the last two weeks, but it pulled out big wins against Bama and Missouri. Saturday’s matchup in Baton Rouge against LSU will be a huge playoff indicator. Oklahoma should secure its spot with a win, but a loss would most likely eliminate it, giving other teams an opportunity to swoop in.
Notre Dame plays unranked Stanford and should have no problem winning that game. A win should keep the Irish in the top 12, but the exact ranking will depend on the outcomes of other ranked matchups.
Alabama is one of the more fascinating teams in college football. The Crimson Tide hold a 10-2 record, but their two losses – FSU and Oklahoma – can’t overshadow how well they have played this season. They’ve had one of the hardest schedules in college football, which the playoff committee will take into consideration when evaluating who should make it. A loss Saturday to unranked Auburn would jeopardize Alabama’s playoff chances, but a win should lock in a berth.
BYU and Miami are in similar situations. A BYU win against UCF would send it to the Big 12 championship against Texas Tech. Winning that game would give the Cougars an auto-bid to the CFP.
BYU got blown out by Texas Tech 29-7, so a win wouldn’t be so easy. However, Miami will need some assistance for a shot at the ACC Championship game. The Hurricanes need a win, along with Virginia and SMU losses, to make it to the conference championship. If that doesn’t happen, they still have a shot to sneak into the playoffs with at least three losses from the four teams ahead of them and Utah, who ranks No. 13
Outsiders That Can Jump Into the Top 12
Winners of the Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC will automatically clinch a playoff spot. The last two conference championship spots, along with the final couple of playoff spots remain wide open.
The ACC championship is between No. 12 Miami, No. 18 Virginia, No. 21 SMU and No. 22 Pittsburgh. Because Miami lost to both Virginia and SMU, its chances at the title game are very slim. Depending who wins the conference, the ACC champion will most likely make the playoff, but it’s not a guarantee if James Madison and Tulane win their respective conferences.
The American Athletic Conference is between No. 24 Tulane, North Texas and Navy. If Tulane wins the conference, the last conference championship spot will likely come down to it and James Madison. If any team aside from James Madison wins the Sun Belt, the winners of the ACC and American should earn those two spots. It’s a three-team race for two playoff spots, so it’ll be interesting to see what the voters decide.
No. 13 Utah, No. 14 Vanderbilt, No. 15 Michigan and No. 16 Texas have the best chances to jump into the playoff without winning their respective conferences.
Utah likely won’t make the conference championship, but a win against Kansas, along with current playoff teams losing can allow them to sneak in. The team’s strong performance has them one spot short of the playoff picture, but it will need a lot of external factors to plead their case.
Vanderbilt has looked terrific throughout the season, but the SEC is such a talented conference. Nos. 11 and 12 are given to conference champs, so Vanderbilt needs to make its way into the top 10. A win against Tennessee and losses from Utah, Bama, and BYU would likely earn the Commodores that No. 10 spot.
If Michigan defeats Ohio State, it would hold the most impressive win in college football this season. Michigan would move to 10-2 and place itself in the conversation with teams like Notre Dame and Oklahoma. It’s a tough task, but the Wolverines won this matchup with a worse roster last season.
Lastly, Texas needs to beat Texas A&M and hope that SEC teams ahead of them also lose. Its 29-21 loss against 3-8 Florida is a major red flag, being the driving factor of its No. 16 ranking.
Here are the complete College Football Playoff Rankings heading into rivalry weekend.
- Ohio State
- Indiana
- Texas A&M
- Georgia
- Texas Tech
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Oklahoma
- Notre Dame
- Alabama
- BYU
- Miami
- Utah
- Vanderbilt
- Michigan
- Texas
- USC
- Virginia
- Tennessee
- Arizona State
- SMU
- Pittsburgh
- Georgia Tech
- Tulane
- Arizona
Category: ACC, Big 10, Big 12, College Football, Miami Hurricanes, SEC
