It might be time for colleges to offer courses purely based on NCAA Tournament bracketology. Net rankings, complex statistics, the quadrant system and strength of schedule all decide the difficulty of a team’s run to the championship. And then it’s still up to a 12-person committee to make sense of it all and seed the teams.
No matter how much research goes into it, the chances of predicting the seeding now is more challenging than selecting a perfect bracket. For Florida basketball, a tough start to the season against stellar opponents, followed by a dominant run in SEC play, makes it harder to understand what this team’s March may look like. Barring any drastically unforeseen results — which is, in a way, the true form of college basketball — Florida currently slates as either a No. 2 or No. 3 seed.
This four-game stretch to end the season could be the difference between a No. 2 seed and a No. 3 seed. If the Gators win against No. 20 Arkansas on Saturday and find a way to win in one of the loudest environments in basketball, Kentucky’s Rupp Arena, the Gators have a great chance to change that No. 3 to a 2.
Looking at past NCAA tournaments, the difference in seeding is crucial.
Since the tournament expanded to 68 teams in 2011, No. 2 seeds have a 71.2% winning percentage compared to a 64.5% percentage for No. 3 seeds.
“We just want to be in the best position possible,” Florida coach Todd Golden said. “We want to be the highest seed possible and go as deep in March as we can.”
The tournament is also structured to pin the No. 2 seed against the No. 3 seed if the teams both advance to the Sweet 16. Since 2011, No. 2s have met their younger brother 19 times, only once outside the Sweet 16, and the No. 2s have won 11 of those matchups.
A No. 3 seed hasn’t won the tournament since the start of the 68-team field in 2011. The only time a No. 2 seed has won since 2011 was 2016 Villanova, which featured New York Knicks stars Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges.
Obviously, it’s still March, and, thus, there can be madness. But Florida’s outlook as a potential No. 3 is obviously a little more grim.
However, if there’s any value to history itself, a No. 3-seeded Gators team lights every projector in the heads of Gators basketball fans. That’s because the last team to win as a No. 3, before UConn did so in 2011, was the Gators in 2006.
This chapter couldn’t write itself better if the 2026 Gators could replicate what that team, composed of Corey Brewer, Al Horford and Joakim Noah did exactly 20 years ago. So fans might actually want the lower seed if they believe in the cyclical nature of society, even if based galaxies from reality.
Sadly: “I think we’re probably a No. 2 right now if I was doing the bracket,” Golden said.
It’d certainly be a conflict of interest if he did, but the Gators are still predicted to be a No. 3 according to CBS Sports’ bracketology. The bracket puts the Gators in the South region, with UConn as the No. 1 seed, Purdue at the No. 2 and Kansas at No. 4.
Compared to other regions consisting of Duke, Michigan or Arizona, the current placement is a dream for Florida fans. UConn and Purdue haven’t been playing their best hoops recently, minus a Husky throttling of St. John’s on Wednesday, and the Jayhawks are a massive question mark in terms of whether they’ll show up, especially considering the situation with the projected No. 1 pick in the NBA draft, Darryn Peterson.
If the Gators move up, they could overtake Houston for the last No. 2 seed in the tournament. The problem is, the weakest No. 2 is placed in the region with the strongest No. 1, which happens to be Duke, fresh off a non-conference win against former No. 1 Michigan.
So, while tournament history has favored No. 2 seeds in the past, the Gators might be fine with CBS’ current projection. A first-round matchup against Austin Peay, then going into the Round of 32 against the winner of UNC and Miami (Ohio), with UNC’s Caleb Wilson possibly still injured? That gives the Gators a relatively easy start to a tournament run.
There’s also a possibility of Florida’s first two games being in Tampa, which is geographically the best outcome for Florida.
“Getting to Tampa is not critical, but it’d be awesome,” Golden said. “I think we would be in good shape to get there if we stay a top-four seed.”
So while the bracket is complicated and ever-changing, there’s arguments on both sides of the aisle for what seeding Florida basketball would benefit the most from. Either way, there’s still a long month ahead.
