Last week I projected the AFC division winners, which haven’t changed much since the start of the season. This week it’s NFC time. The NFC has been a lawless frontier this season with none of the current front runners having made the postseason in 2023-24.
Here are the four teams who should win their respective divisions.
NFC East: Washington Commanders
The Commanders are the surprise of the year, coming out of the gate red hot behind rookie phenom Jayden Daniels, and quite frankly we should’ve seen it coming. Daniel was a special player in college and has the Heisman trophy to prove it, but he was constantly overlooked due to Caleb Williams’s “generational prospect” tag.
Daniels isn’t being overlooked anymore, leading his team to a 4-1 start, the Commanders best since 2008. The reincarnation of RG III is currently -225 to win Rookie of the Year and +1100 to win MVP. Those values rank as the first and fifth shortest odds respectively.
Oh yeah, and he’s also leading all rookies in passing and rushing yards (1,135 yards passing, 300 yards rushing).
Rookie passing yard leaders after Week 5:
1. Jayden Daniels -1,135
2. Caleb Williams – 1,091
3. Bo Nix – 866
4. Adonai Mitchell – 24
5. Drake Maye – 22 https://t.co/omKHMZJ2wg pic.twitter.com/AuRG9NhHj9— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) October 9, 2024
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings Projecting NFC Division Winners
This has been the year of quarterback resurgences; Baker Mayfield, Malik Willis, Joe Flacco, and of course Sam Darnold. Darnold has been on a tear this season posting 1,111 passing yards (13th most in NFL), 11 touchdowns (2nd most) and a perfect 5-0 record.
The offense isn’t the only thing going well for the Vikings. Their defense ranks fourth in the NFL in points allowed (15.2 ppg) and is second in the nation in takeaways with 13. Brian Flores, the Vikings DC, has been lights out putting the Vikings D on a historic pace.
https://twitter.com/ASchatzNFL/status/1843282949166542906
*Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) compares a team’s performance to a league-average baseline based on situation and opponent.*
The Vikings get this week off before facing the 2023 NFC North champion Detroit Lions. If Minnesota can stay undefeated and notch a second division win this week expect them to conquer the north and maybe even the NFC.
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This week couldn’t be bigger for the Bucs. Tampa is coming off a brutal loss to the Falcons on TNF where every Bucs fan, including myself, thought the game was over. Much like the next team in this article, Tampa is banged up badly. The Bucs have been missing All-Pro Antonie Winfield for weeks and now have DBs Jordan Whitehead and Christian Izien on the injury report.
#Bucs C Graham Barton has a hamstring injury and did not practice. CB Christian Izien (elbow/groin) and WR Trey Palmer (concussion) did not practice. T Luke Goedeke (concusison) had full participation and S Antoine Winfield Jr. (ankle) returned to practice but was limited. pic.twitter.com/Tqj357okyK
— Rick Stroud (@NFLSTROUD) October 9, 2024
Even with all the injuries Tampa hasn’t been bad defensively. As a unit, they rank 14th in the NFL with a 66.8 grade. Tampa has also had a myriad of young defenders step up. Zyon McCollum (4) and Yaya Diaby (35) both rank inside the top-35 at CB and EDGE respectively.
The upside for Tampa is their offense which grades as PFF’s No. 5 offense at 77.4. Baker Mayfield has taken a leap forward in year two, throwing for 100 more yards and four more touchdowns through five games. Mike Evans is on pace to become the first player to have 1,000 yards receiving in each of his first 10 seasons. Chris Godwin has been a high-level WR2 and rookie Bucky Irving is averaging 5.6 yards per carry.
NFC West: San Fransisco 49ers Projecting NFC Division Winners
The NFC West is in absolute disarray with both the Rams and 49ers shackled by injuries to star offensive players leading to Seattle sitting atop the NFC West standings.
The Seahawks have played good football on both sides of the ball, graded as PFF’s No. 5 team with an 81.9. With that said I don’t think Seattle has made the best of the spot they find themselves in. Seattle beat the first three teams on their schedule 73-43. Those teams also happen to be 6-9. Since their hot start Seattle lost to Detroit, their first true test of the season, and then dropped a game to an abysmal Giants team at home. I would want Seattle to be 4-1 with convincing wins over the bad teams they played to feel confident about winning the West.
With that said I’m not worried about San Fran for one reason; Kyle Shanahan offenses. The Bay Area is stacked on offense, even without CMC. Deebo Samuel is off the injury report and Brandon Aiyuk should only get better with more reps.
Aiyuk missed training camp due to a contract dispute putting him a month behind the rest of the team.
The 49ers and Seahawks play on Thursday Night Football tonight for all the marbles. A win for the Niners would see them jump to first place in the west. A loss, however, would drop them three games back of Seattle.